工业技术经济
工業技術經濟
공업기술경제
Industrial Technology & Economy
2014年
12期
49~58
,共null页
二元经济结构 包容性增长 脉冲响应函数 方差分解
二元經濟結構 包容性增長 脈遲響應函數 方差分解
이원경제결구 포용성증장 맥충향응함수 방차분해
dual economic structure;inclusive growth;impulse response function;variance decomposition
二元经济结构在多数发展中国家广泛存在,并成为桎梏各国包容性增长的主要因素。本文分别以综合二元反差指数、包容性增长系数作为衡量二元经济结构与包容性增长的指标来构建VAR模型,并通过脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法对我国1978~2012年二元经济结构与包容性增长的互动效应进行实证研究。结果表明,包容性增长提高对二元经济结构转化具有长期显著地促进作用,且其贡献度随着时间的推移不断提高,最终稳定在高水平;二元经济结构强化对包容性增长在当期没有明显影响,但随后包容性增长表现出显著的、持久的恶化倾向,同时其贡献度经历短期的持续上升后稳定在相对低水平。基于本文结论,政府需要在提高经济增长包容性与促进二元经济转化上同时着力,以实现二元经济结构转化与包容性增长提高之间的良性循环。
二元經濟結構在多數髮展中國傢廣汎存在,併成為桎梏各國包容性增長的主要因素。本文分彆以綜閤二元反差指數、包容性增長繫數作為衡量二元經濟結構與包容性增長的指標來構建VAR模型,併通過脈遲響應函數法與方差分解法對我國1978~2012年二元經濟結構與包容性增長的互動效應進行實證研究。結果錶明,包容性增長提高對二元經濟結構轉化具有長期顯著地促進作用,且其貢獻度隨著時間的推移不斷提高,最終穩定在高水平;二元經濟結構彊化對包容性增長在噹期沒有明顯影響,但隨後包容性增長錶現齣顯著的、持久的噁化傾嚮,同時其貢獻度經歷短期的持續上升後穩定在相對低水平。基于本文結論,政府需要在提高經濟增長包容性與促進二元經濟轉化上同時著力,以實現二元經濟結構轉化與包容性增長提高之間的良性循環。
이원경제결구재다수발전중국가엄범존재,병성위질곡각국포용성증장적주요인소。본문분별이종합이원반차지수、포용성증장계수작위형량이원경제결구여포용성증장적지표래구건VAR모형,병통과맥충향응함수법여방차분해법대아국1978~2012년이원경제결구여포용성증장적호동효응진행실증연구。결과표명,포용성증장제고대이원경제결구전화구유장기현저지촉진작용,차기공헌도수착시간적추이불단제고,최종은정재고수평;이원경제결구강화대포용성증장재당기몰유명현영향,단수후포용성증장표현출현저적、지구적악화경향,동시기공헌도경력단기적지속상승후은정재상대저수평。기우본문결론,정부수요재제고경제증장포용성여촉진이원경제전화상동시착력,이실현이원경제결구전화여포용성증장제고지간적량성순배。
Dual economic structure widely exists in most developing countries , and has become the main factor of all the shackles of inclusive growth . In this paper , Comprehensive Dual Contrast Index and Inclusive Growth Coefficient , respectively as indicators to measure dual economic structure and inclusive growth , are used to build the VAR model . Then an empirical study on the interactive effect between dual economic structure and inclusive growth from 1978 to 2012 in China is enacted through the Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition method . The results show that , the improvement of inclusive growth has long -term significant promoting effect on the dual economic structure transformation , and the contribution degree increases gradually with time , eventually stabilizing at a high level ;the reinforcement of dual economic structure has no obvious effect to inclusive growth in the current period , but subsequently the inclusive growth shows a significant , lasting deterioration tendency , while the contribution degree stabilizes at relatively low levels after experiencing a sustained rise in the shortterm . Based on this conclusion , the government needs to improve the inclusiveness of economic growth and promote dual economic structure transformation at the same time , to achieve a virtuous circle of dual economic structure transformation and inclusive growth.