CAJ | 학술논문

构建SVAR模型分析了金融市场与房价波动之间的联动关系。金融市场可以分解为信贷市场、股票市场、外汇市场等，实证结果表明：房价与信贷增额之间的反应最为显著，两者具有自我强化的循环作用；房价与股价、汇率、国际资本净流人、利差之间在短期内具有正向响应关系，在长期内影响则逐渐趋于平稳；信贷增额、股价、汇率对房价波动的贡献度较大，除自身影响外，房价波动是其他变量波动的最大贡献者。
구건SVAR모형분석료금융시장여방개파동지간적련동관계。금융시장가이분해위신대시장、고표시장、외회시장등，실증결과표명：방개여신대증액지간적반응최위현저，량자구유자아강화적순배작용；방개여고개、회솔、국제자본정류인、리차지간재단기내구유정향향응관계，재장기내영향칙축점추우평은；신대증액、고개、회솔대방개파동적공헌도교대，제자신영향외，방개파동시기타변량파동적최대공헌자。
This paper constructs the SVAR model to analyze the dynamic relationship between financial markets and housing price fluctuations. With the financial markets decomposed into the credit market, the stock market and the foreign exchange market and so on, the empirical results show that the reaction between the housing prices and credit increments is the most significant, and the interaction has the cyclic self- intensified function. The positive response relationship exists between the housing prices and the stock prices, exchange rates, inter- national net capital inflows and interest margin in the short term, and the impact tends to become stable gradually in the long term. The credit increments, stock prices and exchange rates make the greater contributions to the housing price fluctuations, and the housing price fluctuation is the greatest contributor to other variables＇ fluctu- ations in addition to the impact themselves.