CAJ | 학술논문

本轮危机冲击下全球贸易出现的“大崩溃”现象,与当前国际分工演进趋势有关。国际产品内分工的快速发展使得同一产品不同生产环节和阶段日益被分解,以中间需求为表现的产品价值链被延长了。因此,危机冲击下中间产品存货调整效应,会透过中间品顺次需求关系,在整条价值链上产生不断的“放大”效果,最终演化为全球贸易的“大崩溃”。通过建立误差修正模型,并纳入能够反映中间贸易品存货调整效应的替代变量,回归结果证实了上述理论假说的正确性。上述结论,一方面意味着加强合作和交流,才是全球应对危机,促进贸易健康发展进而带动经济发展的有效途径,另一方面意味着不应过分夸大贸易波动可能引发经济波动的程度,从而错失“外向型”发展模式在特定阶段给我国经济发展带来的重要机遇。
본륜위궤충격하전구무역출현적“대붕궤”현상,여당전국제분공연진추세유관。국제산품내분공적쾌속발전사득동일산품불동생산배절화계단일익피분해,이중간수구위표현적산품개치련피연장료。인차,위궤충격하중간산품존화조정효응,회투과중간품순차수구관계,재정조개치련상산생불단적“방대”효과,최종연화위전구무역적“대붕궤”。통과건립오차수정모형,병납입능구반영중간무역품존화조정효응적체대변량,회귀결과증실료상술이론가설적정학성。상술결론,일방면의미착가강합작화교류,재시전구응대위궤,촉진무역건강발전진이대동경제발전적유효도경,령일방면의미착불응과분과대무역파동가능인발경제파동적정도,종이착실“외향형”발전모식재특정계단급아국경제발전대래적중요궤우。
The global trade collapse under the current round of crisis shock is closely related to the characteristics of current international labor division. The quick deepening of international intra-product specialization has more and more fragmented the different production stages of a same product, hence an extended product value manifested by intermediate demand. Therefore, the effect of stock adjustment of intermediate products will be continuously magnified along the whole value chain through the order of the demand relation of intermediate prod- ucts, eventually leading to the global trade ＂collapse＂. The econometric analy- sis in this paper testifies to the above theoretical hypothesis. The above conclu- sions indicate that, on one hand, to strengthen cooperation among nations in a bid to promote the healthy development of trade is the only effective way to cope with crisis shocks and realize the recovery of economic growth; on the oth- er, the negative impact degree of crisis shocks on economic development should not be exaggerated, otherwise China might miss the significant opportunity for economic development brought about by the open-oriented economic development mode in certain stages of economic development.