CAJ | 학술논문

人民币实际汇率对国际收支经常项目下的进出口贸易、资本项目下的国外直接投资、外汇储备以及经济增长均有重要影响。论文建立向量自回归模型对1978-2012年中国经济增长、进出口贸易以及实际汇率进行实证研究,结果表明实际汇率贬值促进出口贸易,对进口贸易影响较弱;实际汇率与经济增长存在长期均衡关系,实际汇率贬值对中国经济增长有持续促进作用,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应不适合中国;进出口贸易均和经济增长存在双向Granger因果关系;进口对中国经济增长有显著的正向效应,很长时期内,其对经济增长的贡献度大于出口;进口自身存在较大惯性,是出口的强Granger原因。
인민폐실제회솔대국제수지경상항목하적진출구무역、자본항목하적국외직접투자、외회저비이급경제증장균유중요영향。논문건립향량자회귀모형대1978-2012년중국경제증장、진출구무역이급실제회솔진행실증연구,결과표명실제회솔폄치촉진출구무역,대진구무역영향교약;실제회솔여경제증장존재장기균형관계,실제회솔폄치대중국경제증장유지속촉진작용,파랍살-살무이삼효응불괄합중국;진출구무역균화경제증장존재쌍향Granger인과관계;진구대중국경제증장유현저적정향효응,흔장시기내,기대경제증장적공헌도대우출구;진구자신존재교대관성,시출구적강Granger원인。
RMB real exchange rate has an important impact on import and export of current account, foreign direct investment and foreign exchange re- serves of the capital account under international balance of payments and econom- ic growth. This paper establishes vector auto regression model encompassing China ＇s economic growth, import and export trade and real exchange rate for the peri- od 1978-2012 to conduct an empirical research. The results show that devaluation of real exchange promotes export trade and has a week influence on import trade; there is a long-term equilibrium between real exchange rate and economic growth; depreciation of real exchange rate continues to promote China＇s econom- ic growth, and Balassa-Samuelson effect is not applicable in China; there are two-way Granger causality between import and export trade and economic growth; import has a significant positive effect on China＇ s economic growth which, within a long period of time, has a greater degree of contribution to eco- nomic growth than export; finally, import is of great inertia, which is the reason for the strong Granger causality of export.