CAJ | 학술논문

基于56个主要国家和地区1990～2010年间的投入产出数据,采用多阶段可变规模报酬算法估计了世界生产前沿,分析了我国与世界产业技术的距离变化趋势,勾绘了我国追赶世界先进技术的动态轨迹。研究表明：美、日两国代表了世界产业技术前沿,韩紧随其后。相对于美国,我国的生产水平仍然存在着不容忽视的差距,但与世界生产技术前沿之间的差距正在不断地缩小,这一追赶过程大致可以划分为1990～1991年的距离遥远阶段、1992～1994年的距离快速缩小阶段、1995～2001年的距离中速缩小阶段和2002～2010年的距离接近阶段。按此追赶轨迹,我国大致可以在2018年达到韩国目前的平均生产技术水平。
기우56개주요국가화지구1990～2010년간적투입산출수거,채용다계단가변규모보수산법고계료세계생산전연,분석료아국여세계산업기술적거리변화추세,구회료아국추간세계선진기술적동태궤적。연구표명：미、일량국대표료세계산업기술전연,한긴수기후。상대우미국,아국적생산수평잉연존재착불용홀시적차거,단여세계생산기술전연지간적차거정재불단지축소,저일추간과정대치가이화분위1990～1991년적거리요원계단、1992～1994년적거리쾌속축소계단、1995～2001년적거리중속축소계단화2002～2010년적거리접근계단。안차추간궤적,아국대치가이재2018년체도한국목전적평균생산기술수평。
Based on the input-output data of 56 major countries and regions from 1990 to 2010,the multi-gage VRS model was adopted to estimate the world production frontier and analyze the distancechange trends between China and the world industrial technolo gical frontier,drawing a dynamic trajectory for China to catch up the global advanced technology. It showed tha both United States and Japan can represent the world industry technological frontier,while Korea follows them closely.Comp ared with United States,a great gap in production technology level in China has still existed but the distance between them is being reduced markedly in the recent years. The Chinese technological catch-up processes could be roughly divided into four stages： the first stage is the far distance stage apan from the industry technological frontier in 1990 to 1991; the second stage is the quicklyshorten stage in dist ance to the industry technological frontier in 1992 to 1994; the third stage is the moderate shorten stage in distance to the industry technological frontier in 1995 to 2001; and the forth stage is the close stage to the industry technological frontier in 2002 to 2010. According to the dynamic catching up trajectory,China would reach the average production technology level of current Korea in 2018.