CAJ | 학술논문

考虑应急情景下决策者对可获外部支援能力过度自信,借鉴报童理论构建了运作系统应急能力恢复决策模型,分析了过度自信对系统能力恢复决策及应急绩效的影响。结论表明：决策者的过度自信偏差会损害系统应急绩效,且其对能力恢复决策的影响与系统面临的缺货惩罚、能力修复成本水平有关。另外,过度自信偏差会削弱监管部门的惩罚或补贴等措施对系统能力恢复的正向刺激效果,从而加大了运作系统的应急监管难度。
고필응급정경하결책자대가획외부지원능력과도자신,차감보동이론구건료운작계통응급능력회복결책모형,분석료과도자신대계통능력회복결책급응급적효적영향。결론표명：결책자적과도자신편차회손해계통응급적효,차기대능력회복결책적영향여계통면림적결화징벌、능력수복성본수평유관。령외,과도자신편차회삭약감관부문적징벌혹보첩등조시대계통능력회복적정향자격효과,종이가대료운작계통적응급감관난도。
This paper presents a mathematic model based on newsvendor theory in order to find out how overconfidence bias result in the deviation between the practice and ideal optimal solution. Conclusions drawn in our research show that： overconfidence bias can damage system disruption performance; overconfidence will lead to inadequate recovery capability or excessive recovery capability based on the level of shortage punishment; regulators can take penalty or subsidy measures to drive operation system restore damaged capacity more positively,but this effect will be weakened by decision maker＇s overconfidence bias.