CAJ | 학술논문

基于人口与粮食的关系建立土地资源承载力模型,以湖南省各县域为例,分析湖南省粮食总产量及土地资源承载力的发展特点,探讨土地资源承载力与区域经济发展的关系,并在此基础上提出发展策略。研究表明：全省粮食总产量呈总体增长趋势,土地资源承载力指数基本持平;全省粮食生产与土地资源承载力指数的变化可以分为3个阶段：平稳期、减产期和波动增长期,各县域土地资源承载力可分为人口超载区、粮食盈余区和动态平衡区;可以预期,粮食生产总量的发展趋势为稳中有升,土地资源承载力基本不变,处于粮食临界盈余状态。土地资源承载力与区域经济的协调关系的基本特征表现为：从时间上看,2000-2004年处于缓慢变化阶段,2004-2008年处于粗放式发展阶段,2008-2012年处于集约式发展阶段;从空间上看,全省可分为高水平协调型（H-H型）、土地粗放利用型（H-L型）、土地集约利用型（L-H型）和低水平协调型（L-L型）等4种区域类型,不同类型的发展战略均不同。
기우인구여양식적관계건립토지자원승재력모형,이호남성각현역위례,분석호남성양식총산량급토지자원승재력적발전특점,탐토토지자원승재력여구역경제발전적관계,병재차기출상제출발전책략。연구표명：전성양식총산량정총체증장추세,토지자원승재력지수기본지평;전성양식생산여토지자원승재력지수적변화가이분위3개계단：평은기、감산기화파동증장기,각현역토지자원승재력가분위인구초재구、양식영여구화동태평형구;가이예기,양식생산총량적발전추세위은중유승,토지자원승재력기본불변,처우양식림계영여상태。토지자원승재력여구역경제적협조관계적기본특정표현위：종시간상간,2000-2004년처우완만변화계단,2004-2008년처우조방식발전계단,2008-2012년처우집약식발전계단;종공간상간,전성가분위고수평협조형（H-H형）、토지조방이용형（H-L형）、토지집약이용형（L-H형）화저수평협조형（L-L형）등4충구역류형,불동류형적발전전략균불동。
Based on the relationship between population and food, this paper establishes a model of bearing capacity, analyzes the characteristics of development in the total grain output and the coordinated development, and discusses the relationship between population and food, summarizing the relevant development strategies. The results of the research show that the grain output of this province has a trend of overall increase and the bearing capacity index of land resources is little ehanged that the change of the grain production and the bearing capacity index of land resources can be divided into three stages： smooth period, production period and wave growth; and that the bearing capacity of land resources of each county can be divided into population-overloaded area, food surplus area and dynamic balance area. It is expected that the total grain production of this province will be in steady growth. The bearing capacity of land resources basically remains unchanged and will be in a state of food of critical surplus. The basic characteristics of the coordination relationship between the bearing capacity of land resources and the regional economic show that, from the point of view of the time, it was in a slow change stage from 2000 to 2004, in an extensive development stage from 2004 to 2008 and in a intensive development stage from 2008 to 2012; and from the point view of the space, the province can be divided into four types of areas, i. e. , high level of coordination （H-H type）, extensive land use （H-L type）, intensive land use （L -H type） and low level coordination （L L type）. Different types of development strategies are different.