CAJ | 학술논문

运用系统动力学方法构建了四川天然气勘探开发的系统动力学模型,分析了天然气勘探开发过程中资源税与其他系统要素间的因果关系和反馈机制。通过仿真,分析了此次资源税“从价计征”改革对四川当地政府税收、资源企业收益、天然气勘探开发等造成的影响和冲击,仿真结果表明：资源税改革极大地增加了地方财政收入,公众满意度明显上升;目前暂行5%的税率水平对资源企业盈利影响有限;资源税计税方式的变化对天然气勘探开发的总量影响不大,但从整个勘探开发动态过程而言,从价计征条件下的资源开发速度更加理性,资源开采更加合理。在此基础上进一步分析天然气价格对资源税改革的影响,最后,根据仿真结果提出了我国深化资源税改革的对策建议。
운용계통동역학방법구건료사천천연기감탐개발적계통동역학모형,분석료천연기감탐개발과정중자원세여기타계통요소간적인과관계화반궤궤제。통과방진,분석료차차자원세“종개계정”개혁대사천당지정부세수、자원기업수익、천연기감탐개발등조성적영향화충격,방진결과표명：자원세개혁겁대지증가료지방재정수입,공음만의도명현상승;목전잠행5%적세솔수평대자원기업영리영향유한;자원세계세방식적변화대천연기감탐개발적총량영향불대,단종정개감탐개발동태과정이언,종개계정조건하적자원개발속도경가이성,자원개채경가합리。재차기출상진일보분석천연기개격대자원세개혁적영향,최후,근거방진결과제출료아국심화자원세개혁적대책건의。
China started resources tax reform in 2011. The focus of the reform is levying tax based on price instead of production volume for crude oil and natural gas. Taking Sichuan Province, which has affluent natural gas reserve, as an example and using system dynamics methodology, this paper analyzes the effects of resource tax reform from the perspectives of natural gas exploration and exploitation, resource enterprise earnings, local government revenues and local people＇s attitudes to tax reform. The simulation results show that the reform has bolstered the local fiscal revenues and improved people＇s satisfaction, and the 5~ tax rate has had little influence on profits of resource enterprises. The results also show that in terms of total volume of natural gas exploration and production, there is no big difference between levying tax based on production volume and levying tax based on price. However, from the perspective of the dynamic process of exploration and exploitation, the resource extraction rate of levying tax based on price is more reasonable. In addition, by simulation, it is found that the nature gas price has played an important role in resource tax reform. The paper ends with some suggestions for deepening the tax reform.