财经理论与实践
財經理論與實踐
재경이론여실천
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
2014年
6期
128~131
,共null页
浏阳市 产业结构 演进过程 经济预测
瀏暘市 產業結構 縯進過程 經濟預測
류양시 산업결구 연진과정 경제예측
Liuyang county; Industrial structure; Evolutionary process; Economic forecast
以1993-2012年浏阳市县域经济产业结构演进为分析对象,运用多样化的实证分析方法,探讨浏阳市县域经济的产业结构重心演进轨迹,并运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对浏阳市接下来三年的产业结构发展情况进行经济预测。结果表明:浏阳市应该改变现阶段第二产业“一家独大”的单一局面,分步骤、分阶段地逐步提高第三产业比重,大力发展服务经济,培育县域经济新的增长点,促进县域产业结构的不断优化升级。
以1993-2012年瀏暘市縣域經濟產業結構縯進為分析對象,運用多樣化的實證分析方法,探討瀏暘市縣域經濟的產業結構重心縯進軌跡,併運用灰色預測模型GM(1,1)對瀏暘市接下來三年的產業結構髮展情況進行經濟預測。結果錶明:瀏暘市應該改變現階段第二產業“一傢獨大”的單一跼麵,分步驟、分階段地逐步提高第三產業比重,大力髮展服務經濟,培育縣域經濟新的增長點,促進縣域產業結構的不斷優化升級。
이1993-2012년류양시현역경제산업결구연진위분석대상,운용다양화적실증분석방법,탐토류양시현역경제적산업결구중심연진궤적,병운용회색예측모형GM(1,1)대류양시접하래삼년적산업결구발전정황진행경제예측。결과표명:류양시응해개변현계단제이산업“일가독대”적단일국면,분보취、분계단지축보제고제삼산업비중,대력발전복무경제,배육현역경제신적증장점,촉진현역산업결구적불단우화승급。
Based on the statistics of Liuyang county's economy between 1993-2012, the au- thors use a variety of empirical analysis methods, exploring Liuyang county's evolution of industrial structure, forecasting the following 3 years' industrial statistics with Grey Model (GM(1, 1)). According to this analysis, we can draw these conclusions: Liuyang should change the situation of imbalanced development of secondary industry, increase the proportion of the tertiary industry, cultivate new economic growth point and promote the county's industrial structure optimization and upgrading.