CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过一个具有微观基础的均衡模型刻画了中国出口变化的决定机制，发现汇率仅是影响出口因素之一，其影响方向和力度大小还取决于其他结构性制度性条件；此外，外部需求、出口商品结构、经济发展阶段、劳动力成本、比较优势变化等因素对中国出口有更重要、更确定影响。运用时序数据并首次使用出口国面板数据的实证研究显示，出口的人民币升值弹性为-0．09至-0．54。跨国面板数据分析也表明，汇率变化只能解释各国出口变化的小部分，且随着中国自2008年进入中等收入国家，汇率升值对出口的影响有所减弱。我们认为，尚不存在人民币过快或过度升值的证据，应继续推进汇率形成机制改革，使市场供求对汇率水平及波动起决定性作用。
본문통과일개구유미관기출적균형모형각화료중국출구변화적결정궤제，발현회솔부시영향출구인소지일，기영향방향화력도대소환취결우기타결구성제도성조건；차외，외부수구、출구상품결구、경제발전계단、노동력성본、비교우세변화등인소대중국출구유경중요、경학정영향。운용시서수거병수차사용출구국면판수거적실증연구현시，출구적인민폐승치탄성위-0．09지-0．54。과국면판수거분석야표명，회솔변화지능해석각국출구변화적소부분，차수착중국자2008년진입중등수입국가，회솔승치대출구적영향유소감약。아문인위，상불존재인민폐과쾌혹과도승치적증거，응계속추진회솔형성궤제개혁，사시장공구대회솔수평급파동기결정성작용。
This paper constructs an equilibrium model with a microscopic characterization to describe the mechanism of China＇s exports, and find that exchange rate is just one of factors that influence export, whose direction and intensity depend on other structural institutional conditions ; additionally, external demand, structure of export commodity, stage of development, labor costs, comparative advantage changes and other factors are more important and assured to China＇s exports. Empirical study using time - series data and exporting country panel data that is firstly used in literature shows that, RMB appreciation elasticity of export is - 0.09-- - 0.54. In addition, cross - border panel data analysis also shows that changes in exchange rates can only explain a small part of changes in national export, and as China became one of the middle - income countries since 2008, the impact of exchange rate appreciation on exports weakens. We think that there is no proof of rapid or excessive appreciation of the RMB, and the authority should continue to promote exchange rate formation mechanism reform to make market to be decisive role in exchange rate determination.