CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用1994—2013年中国经验数据，实证检验了人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国服务出口增长的影响。结果表明：（1）人民币实际有效汇率变动对服务出口增长具有显著负面的滞后影响；（2）分部门来看，人民币实际有效汇率变动对新型服务贸易部门出口增长影响，超过对传统部门出口增长影响。在进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革以及增强人民币汇率弹性进程中，应注意避免汇率过度波动对我国服务贸易发展可能带来的不利影响。适当而稳健的汇率政策，不仅对于扩大服务出口，而且对于服务出口结构优化升级，都有重要意义。
본문이용1994—2013년중국경험수거，실증검험료인민폐실제유효회솔변동대중국복무출구증장적영향。결과표명：（1）인민폐실제유효회솔변동대복무출구증장구유현저부면적체후영향；（2）분부문래간，인민폐실제유효회솔변동대신형복무무역부문출구증장영향，초과대전통부문출구증장영향。재진일보추진인민폐회솔형성궤제개혁이급증강인민폐회솔탄성진정중，응주의피면회솔과도파동대아국복무무역발전가능대래적불리영향。괄당이은건적회솔정책，불부대우확대복무출구，이차대우복무출구결구우화승급，도유중요의의。
By using Chinese empirical data covering 1994 to 2013 and after controlling for other factors, we car- ry out empirical test on the possible impact of the RMB＇s real effective exchange rate on Chinese service trade export growth. The results show that：（1） the RMB＇s real effective exchange rate has insignificant positive effect on the export of service trade growth, but the lagged one period of RMB real effective exchange rate has significant negative influence on the growth of services exports, therefore, real effective exchange rate of RMB changes exert impact on service trade and shows a weak ＂J＂ curve effect; （2） from the service trade sectors of view, the RMB real effective exchange rate, especially the lag effect exerted on services trade export growth, influence much more in the new sector of service trade export growth than in the traditional service trade sector; （ 3 ） human capital has a significant positive effect on the export of service trade, and this effect for the new serv- ice trade sector is much more; （4） FDI has a positive role in promoting service trade export growth, but the role in the traditional service trade export growth is stronger than in the new service trade sector.