CAJ | 학술논문

本文在考虑政策选择中存在的非随机自选择问题的基础上，研究发展中国家股票市场开放的长期平均增长效应和短期动态增长效应。研究发现，股票市场开放对发展中国家的长期经济增长没有显著影响；它在短期内存在显著的增长效应，但主要是由消费而非投资的增长所导致；并且这一消费拉动的短暂繁荣也绝非没有代价。在开放后十年左右，投资增长的下降最终带来显著的负增长效应以及货币危机发生概率的显著提高。
본문재고필정책선택중존재적비수궤자선택문제적기출상，연구발전중국가고표시장개방적장기평균증장효응화단기동태증장효응。연구발현，고표시장개방대발전중국가적장기경제증장몰유현저영향；타재단기내존재현저적증장효응，단주요시유소비이비투자적증장소도치；병차저일소비랍동적단잠번영야절비몰유대개。재개방후십년좌우，투자증장적하강최종대래현저적부증장효응이급화폐위궤발생개솔적현저제고。
We examine both the long - run average and the year - by - year dynamic growth effects of stock mar- ket liberalization while controlling for the self - selection problem of policy adoption. We show that, despite in- significant long -run effects, liberalization stimulates growth in the first four -year period following liberalization. However, this temporary growth phenomenon is driven by consumption rather than investment. Further- more, the impact of liberalization on growth eventually becomes significantly negative since the 10th year of liberalization and is accompanied by lower investment growth and higher probabilities of currency crises.