CAJ | 학술논문

为探讨能源结构对低碳经济的作用机理，根据对低碳经济和能源结构内涵的理解，将碳强度作为低碳经济的核心要素，系统剖析能源结构对低碳经济的作用关系，进而运用通径分析测算能源结构对其的总影响、直接影响和间接影响，明确了作用机理。结果表明：能源供给结构对碳强度的作用较小；能源消费结构是碳强度增长的主要推动因素，总作用效应为0．919，其中直接效应为-0．189，间接效应为1．108。在此基础上，通过岭回归方法构建能源消费结构预测模型，并据此得出，为实现减排承诺，应将煤炭消费（去除发电用煤）占能源总量的比重调整为26．89％～27．87％。
위탐토능원결구대저탄경제적작용궤리，근거대저탄경제화능원결구내함적리해，장탄강도작위저탄경제적핵심요소，계통부석능원결구대저탄경제적작용관계，진이운용통경분석측산능원결구대기적총영향、직접영향화간접영향，명학료작용궤리。결과표명：능원공급결구대탄강도적작용교소；능원소비결구시탄강도증장적주요추동인소，총작용효응위0．919，기중직접효응위-0．189，간접효응위1．108。재차기출상，통과령회귀방법구건능원소비결구예측모형，병거차득출，위실현감배승낙，응장매탄소비（거제발전용매）점능원총량적비중조정위26．89％～27．87％。
To effectively investigate the influence mechanism of energy structure on low-carbon economy, with the understanding of low-carbon economy and energy structure, the paper takes the carbon emissions intensity as the core element of low-carbon economy, and systematically analyzes the effect relationship of energy structure on low-carbon economy. Then, it calculates the total, direct or in- direct influence of energy structure in the use of the path analysis, to catch the influence mechanism specifically. Results indicate that energy supply structure has subtle effect on the carbon emissions intensity, while total effect of energy consumption structure is 0. 919, -0. 189 by direct, and 1. 108 by indirect. Based on this, by the ridge regression method, it builds a prediction model. According to it, the proportion of coal consumption （remove the coal for generating electricity） should be adjusted to 26. 89% -27.87%, to a- chieve the commitment of energy saving.