CAJ | 학술논문

笔者借助于扩展的引力模型，利用占中国出口额90％以上的97个代表性国家或地区的1997年～2011年的面板数据对我国贸易政策的制度质量进行了实证考察。研究结果表明：我国现行的贸易政策总体上是有效的，除了在1995年～1997年和2004年～2006年2个时段发生了较大的波动外，我国的贸易政策保持了相对稳定。贸易政策的制度有效性和稳定性对贸易发展有显著的促进作用：通过为贸易主体提供良好、稳定的政策预期而对贸易产生的直接促进作用；通过促进经济增长而对贸易产生的间接促进作用。
필자차조우확전적인력모형，이용점중국출구액90％이상적97개대표성국가혹지구적1997년～2011년적면판수거대아국무역정책적제도질량진행료실증고찰。연구결과표명：아국현행적무역정책총체상시유효적，제료재1995년～1997년화2004년～2006년2개시단발생료교대적파동외，아국적무역정책보지료상대은정。무역정책적제도유효성화은정성대무역발전유현저적촉진작용：통과위무역주체제공량호、은정적정책예기이대무역산생적직접촉진작용；통과촉진경제증장이대무역산생적간접촉진작용。
Starting from two institutional dimensional property-institutional effectiveness and stability, institutional quality of China＇ s trade policy is evaluated in this paper firstly. Then, with extended gravity model, using panel data covering 1997-2011 of 97 representative nations whose imports account for 90% of China＇ s total export, we probe into the effects on institutional quality of China＇ s trade policy empirically. Finally, we put forward some corresponding recommendations on how to improve institutional quality of China＇ s trade policy based on what we have studied above. The results show that： China＇ s current trade policy in general is effective and keeps relative stability except two periods of 1995-1997 and 2004-2006. Institutional effectiveness and stability of China＇ s trade policy play a significant role in improving the development of trade. The effect manifests itself through two channels： providing favorable and stable policy expectation for traders and promoting economic growth.