CAJ | 학술논문

一般认为，生产性服务业和制造业是互动发展的，但具体到特定发展阶段和区域，生产性服务业不一定依赖于制造业。基于投入产出分析方法和面板数据计量模型，笔者实证研究了上海市制造业转移和生产性服务业发展的关系。结果表明，上海制造业转移是必要的而且是正在发生的事实；生产性服务业在一定程度上是可以自持的；上海本地生产性服务业的发展更多来自于本地服务业的需求，制造业向外转移对本地生产性服务业的发展并未起到显著的抑制作用。
일반인위，생산성복무업화제조업시호동발전적，단구체도특정발전계단화구역，생산성복무업불일정의뢰우제조업。기우투입산출분석방법화면판수거계량모형，필자실증연구료상해시제조업전이화생산성복무업발전적관계。결과표명，상해제조업전이시필요적이차시정재발생적사실；생산성복무업재일정정도상시가이자지적；상해본지생산성복무업적발전경다래자우본지복무업적수구，제조업향외전이대본지생산성복무업적발전병미기도현저적억제작용。
Generally speaking, the development of producer services and manufacturing is interactive. But when specific to a particular stage of development and regional, producer services are not necessarily dependent on the manufacturing industry. Based on the inputoutput analysis and panel data econometric model, this paper empirically studies the relationship between the manufacturing transfer in Shanghai and the development of producer services. The results show that the manufacturing transfer is necessary and what is happening in fact. Producer services are self-sustaining in some extent. The development of producer services in Shanghai gets more demand from the local service industries, and the manufacturing transfer doesn＇ t play a significant inhibition on the development of local producer services.