CAJ | 학술논문

笔者通过建立VAR模型，结合我国实际情况，探讨了人民币“外升内贬”传导机理，实证分析人民币汇率悖论的传导路径。研究结果表明中国汇率升值引起外汇占款增加，外汇占款的增加导致货币供应量的增加，最终引起物价水平上涨。
필자통과건립VAR모형，결합아국실제정황，탐토료인민폐“외승내폄”전도궤리，실증분석인민폐회솔패론적전도로경。연구결과표명중국회솔승치인기외회점관증가，외회점관적증가도치화폐공응량적증가，최종인기물개수평상창。
Based on the traditional exchange rate price transmission theory and the facts in China, this article tries to explore the conduction mechanism of RMB＇ s domestic appreciation and international depreciation, and analyze the conduction path of RMB exchange rate paradox by the VAR model as well. According to the model, the conduction path exists： exchange rate appreciation increases the amount of foreign exchange reserves, which further results in a higher money supply, and the enhanced money supply finally booms the price level. In the end, this article provides some policy suggestions regarding the paradox.