CAJ | 학술논문

利用1995年、2002年和2007年的CHIPS（China Household Income Projects）数据实证分析了家庭人口结构变化对城乡居民家庭消费结构和储蓄率的影响.家庭收入、规模大小、户主年龄和家庭不同年龄人口占比等家庭人口结构变量对消费结构和储蓄率都有一定的影响.就消费结构来说,如教育支出方面,老年家庭明显低于年轻家庭;医疗保障支出方面,老年家庭明显高于年轻家庭.同时,研究表明我国城镇和农村家庭的户主年龄与储蓄率略呈U型结构,也就是说我国家庭微观储蓄率与经典的生命周期假设不一致.进一步探讨了未来家庭人口结构变化对中国家庭储蓄率和经济结构的影响以及相关政策涵义.
이용1995년、2002년화2007년적CHIPS（China Household Income Projects）수거실증분석료가정인구결구변화대성향거민가정소비결구화저축솔적영향.가정수입、규모대소、호주년령화가정불동년령인구점비등가정인구결구변량대소비결구화저축솔도유일정적영향.취소비결구래설,여교육지출방면,노년가정명현저우년경가정;의료보장지출방면,노년가정명현고우년경가정.동시,연구표명아국성진화농촌가정적호주년령여저축솔략정U형결구,야취시설아국가정미관저축솔여경전적생명주기가설불일치.진일보탐토료미래가정인구결구변화대중국가정저축솔화경제결구적영향이급상관정책함의.
Based on 1995,2002 and 2007 CHIPS （ China Household Income Projects） data, this paper analyzes the impacts of the family demographic changes on urban and rural households＇ consumption structure and the savings rate. The results show that ： family income, size, age of the head of the household, ratio of different age people in the family and other demographic changes have impact on consumption structure and savings rates. As for Consumption structure, for example, the education and culture consumption of elderly family was significantly lower than young families ; medical expenditure of elderly household is significantly higher than young families. Moreover, shows that the relationship between head age of China＇ s urban and rural household in 25 to 60 years old and micro - household＇ s saving rate is slightly U - shaped structure, it is inconsistent with the life - cycle theory. Furthermore, we discuss the issue how do future demographic changes of china affect the national saving and economic growth, as well as the relevant policy implications.