CAJ | 학술논문

居民部门福利水平，不仅决定于收入与消费的绝对水平，也取决于其波动水平即风险程度。通过金融市场和财政转移支付而实现的收入的交换流通，以降低本地消费与本地产出的相关性分担本地产出波动导致的居民消费的风险。本文计算了1985—2011年中国消费风险分担的趋势，发现中国省级消费风险分担水平偏低而且增加趋势不明显。进一步的研究结果表明，政府为了增加财政收入而采取的地方保护行为，严重抑制了财政转移支付和银行信贷市场在分担消费风险中的作用，直接造成了中国较低的消费风险分担水平。而金融业的国有化，则没有呈现出类似的影响。本文的结论对中国未来统筹区域经济发展和金融业市场化改革有重要的启示意义。
거민부문복이수평，불부결정우수입여소비적절대수평，야취결우기파동수평즉풍험정도。통과금융시장화재정전이지부이실현적수입적교환류통，이강저본지소비여본지산출적상관성분담본지산출파동도치적거민소비적풍험。본문계산료1985—2011년중국소비풍험분담적추세，발현중국성급소비풍험분담수평편저이차증가추세불명현。진일보적연구결과표명，정부위료증가재정수입이채취적지방보호행위，엄중억제료재정전이지부화은행신대시장재분담소비풍험중적작용，직접조성료중국교저적소비풍험분담수평。이금융업적국유화，칙몰유정현출유사적영향。본문적결론대중국미래통주구역경제발전화금융업시장화개혁유중요적계시의의。
Household welfare relies on both the level consumption and the associated consumption risk. A low correlation between local output and consumption, which can be achieved through channels of the exchange of income, such as capital markets, credit markets and fiscal transfer payments, can share the households＇ consumption risk resulted from the volatility of local output. This study calculates the trend of inter-provincial consumption risk sharing in China from 1985 to 2011. We find that the consumption risk sharing in China is very limited, and the local protectionism motivated by fiscal revenues has significantly impeded risk sharing through fiscal transfer payments and banking credit markets. Further evidence shows that the nationalization of Chinese financial industry hasn＇t shown similar impacts. Our results have valuable implications for financial reforms of China in future.