CAJ | 학술논문

本文提出一种测算人口红利的新方法,即利用相对静止人口代替静止人口作为参照系测算潜在人口红利,进而为估算人口红利奠定基础。首先,从统计学角度将总人口变异系数小于5%的人口状态定义为相对静止人口状态。其次,处于相对静止人口状态的国家,其人口特征与静止人口相似,包括自然增长率接近零、性别结构相对固定、人口年龄结构相对稳定等,尤其是适龄劳动年龄段的人口比重在66%的水平上。最后,以这一稳定人口年龄结构为参照系,可以测算不同国家的潜在人口红利。
본문제출일충측산인구홍리적신방법,즉이용상대정지인구대체정지인구작위삼조계측산잠재인구홍리,진이위고산인구홍리전정기출。수선,종통계학각도장총인구변이계수소우5%적인구상태정의위상대정지인구상태。기차,처우상대정지인구상태적국가,기인구특정여정지인구상사,포괄자연증장솔접근령、성별결구상대고정、인구년령결구상대은정등,우기시괄령노동년령단적인구비중재66%적수평상。최후,이저일은정인구년령결구위삼조계,가이측산불동국가적잠재인구홍리。
Relative stationary population refers to the populations of some countries remain relatively stationary in real world. Comparing with other countries, the populations of this type of countries change only a few. Their characteristics are similar to those in stationary population, including natural growth rate approaches to 0, sex and age structure remains stable, and so on. Especially, the proportion of the population ages 15 to 64 approaches to 66%. As this age structure is set to be a frame of reference, the potential demographic dividend of different countries can be calculated precisely. Empirical analysis also proves that, it is workable to use relative stationary population instead of standard population in calculating potential demographic dividend.