CAJ | 학술논문

文章在测算中国各地区2001-2012年能源消费碳排放的基础上,结合脱钩理论和聚类分析方法,运用地理信息系统软件Arc-GIS,实证分析了这期间我国区域能源碳排放和经济增长的空间脱钩趋势。研究结果发现,中国大多数省份的能源碳排放与经济发展之间呈现弱脱钩的关系。在递进进行的脱钩关系的恒等式因果链分解后,可知中国工业领域的能源利用效率的显著提高和能源消费过程中电气化水平的稳步推进是中国各省区碳排放增长速度减缓的主要原因,而在此期间中国各省区经济增长对工业、特别是重工业的严重依赖是中国各省区碳排放增长的主要原因。
문장재측산중국각지구2001-2012년능원소비탄배방적기출상,결합탈구이론화취류분석방법,운용지리신식계통연건Arc-GIS,실증분석료저기간아국구역능원탄배방화경제증장적공간탈구추세。연구결과발현,중국대다수성빈적능원탄배방여경제발전지간정현약탈구적관계。재체진진행적탈구관계적항등식인과련분해후,가지중국공업영역적능원이용효솔적현저제고화능원소비과정중전기화수평적은보추진시중국각성구탄배방증장속도감완적주요원인,이재차기간중국각성구경제증장대공업、특별시중공업적엄중의뢰시중국각성구탄배방증장적주요원인。
On the basis of calculating carbon emissions from energy consumption in the provincial level,using de-coupling theory,cluster analysis and the Arc-GIS software,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the spatialdecoupling trend of carbon emissions and economic growth in China from 2001 to 2012. The results show that thedecoupling relationship between carbon emissions from energy consumption and economic growth in most provincesof China presents weak decoupling. After decomposing identity causal chain with progressive decoupling relation-ship, we find that the significant increase of energy efficiency in industrial sector and the steady advancement ofelectrification in energy consumption are the main reasons in slowing down the increase rate of carbon emissions,whereas the dependence of economic growth on industry,especially on heavy industry,is the most important rea-son of carbon emissions increase in the provinces of China during the same period.