首都经济贸易大学学报
首都經濟貿易大學學報
수도경제무역대학학보
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
2015年
1期
3~10
,共null页
“新常态” 宏观经济波动 企业家信心 失业率
“新常態” 宏觀經濟波動 企業傢信心 失業率
“신상태” 굉관경제파동 기업가신심 실업솔
＂the New Normal＂; macroeconomic fluctuation; the confidence of entrepreneurs; the unem-ployment rate
＂新常态＂背景下,GDP增速下滑是大概率事件,宏观经济波动将不可避免。梳理中国宏观经济的各种因素与企业家信心、失业率,探讨三者之间的脉冲响应关系,发现：企业家信心会在一定程度上对失业率产生影响;利率波动对企业家信心和失业率的冲击最为显著,而企业家信心和失业率对于房价的冲击最为明显;GDP增速的波动对企业家信心的冲击具有显著的正向关系,对于失业率的冲击具有显著的负向关系;＂新常态＂背景下宏观经济波动存在潜在风险。
＂新常態＂揹景下,GDP增速下滑是大概率事件,宏觀經濟波動將不可避免。梳理中國宏觀經濟的各種因素與企業傢信心、失業率,探討三者之間的脈遲響應關繫,髮現：企業傢信心會在一定程度上對失業率產生影響;利率波動對企業傢信心和失業率的遲擊最為顯著,而企業傢信心和失業率對于房價的遲擊最為明顯;GDP增速的波動對企業傢信心的遲擊具有顯著的正嚮關繫,對于失業率的遲擊具有顯著的負嚮關繫;＂新常態＂揹景下宏觀經濟波動存在潛在風險。
＂신상태＂배경하,GDP증속하활시대개솔사건,굉관경제파동장불가피면。소리중국굉관경제적각충인소여기업가신심、실업솔,탐토삼자지간적맥충향응관계,발현：기업가신심회재일정정도상대실업솔산생영향;리솔파동대기업가신심화실업솔적충격최위현저,이기업가신심화실업솔대우방개적충격최위명현;GDP증속적파동대기업가신심적충격구유현저적정향관계,대우실업솔적충격구유현저적부향관계;＂신상태＂배경하굉관경제파동존재잠재풍험。
The decline of the GDP growth rate is of big probability and the macroeconomic fluctuation will be inevitable in the context of ＂the New Normal ＂. By combing a variety factors of the Chinense macroeconomy,the confidence of entrepreneurs and the unemployment rate,the paper applies the vector auto regression model to analyze their dynamic relationship on the base of the annual data. It finds that： the entrepreneur confidence affects the unemployment rate on a certain extent; the interest rate fluctuations on the impact of entrepreneurial confidence and unemployment rate is the most significant,and the confidence of entrepreneurs and the unemployment rate on the impact of house price is the most obvious; the GDP growth rate fluctuations has significantly positive relationship with the impact of entrepreneur confidence,while it has significant negative relationship with the unemployment rate; there exits potential risk in the period of ＂the New Normal＂.
