首都经济贸易大学学报
首都經濟貿易大學學報
수도경제무역대학학보
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
2015年
1期
40~46
,共null页
电力需求 售电量 对数函数 预测模型
電力需求 售電量 對數函數 預測模型
전력수구 수전량 대수함수 예측모형
electricity demand; electricity sales; logarithmic function; forecasting models
采取多元回归的建模方式和逐步回归法,筛选出能够预测中国电力需求的关键影响因素,包括本期电力消耗量、年份、人口增长率、经济增长率、供电区域面积、工业品出厂价格指数,以对数函数为基础,可构建电量需求的短期预测模型和售电量的中长期时间序列预测模型。基于模型分析,可为电网企业的发展提供建议:强化电力需求预测,为确定投资规模提供科学依据;以电力需求引导电力投资规划,实现电力供求的动态平衡。
採取多元迴歸的建模方式和逐步迴歸法,篩選齣能夠預測中國電力需求的關鍵影響因素,包括本期電力消耗量、年份、人口增長率、經濟增長率、供電區域麵積、工業品齣廠價格指數,以對數函數為基礎,可構建電量需求的短期預測模型和售電量的中長期時間序列預測模型。基于模型分析,可為電網企業的髮展提供建議:彊化電力需求預測,為確定投資規模提供科學依據;以電力需求引導電力投資規劃,實現電力供求的動態平衡。
채취다원회귀적건모방식화축보회귀법,사선출능구예측중국전력수구적관건영향인소,포괄본기전력소모량、년빈、인구증장솔、경제증장솔、공전구역면적、공업품출엄개격지수,이대수함수위기출,가구건전량수구적단기예측모형화수전량적중장기시간서렬예측모형。기우모형분석,가위전망기업적발전제공건의:강화전력수구예측,위학정투자규모제공과학의거;이전력수구인도전력투자규화,실현전력공구적동태평형。
By means of multiple regression and stepwise regression,the paper screens out the key factors influencing the electricity demand of China,which include the current consumption of electricity,year,the growth rate of population,the growth rate of economy, the proportion of power supply areas and Producer Price Index( PPI). Based on logarithmic function,two short-term forecasting models of electricity demand,a mid-term and a long-term time series forecasting models of electricity sales are established. The paper also puts forth the following suggestions: grid corporations should strengthen the forecast of electricity demand to provide scientific foundation for investment; grid corporations should take advantage of the forecast of electricity demand,and promote dynamic equilibrium of electric supply and demand.