CAJ | 학술논문

在量化分析欧美关税和非关税壁垒水平以及测算美国、欧盟和中国这三大经济体双边货物贸易比较优势的基础上,依据农产品关税、非农产品关税以及非关税壁垒水平削减情况设定不同情景,通过全球贸易分析模型（GTAP）模拟分析《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定》（TTIP）贸易自由化进程对美国、欧盟和中国经济的影响。研究结果发现TTIP能促进美国和欧盟的GDP及进出口贸易,并导致中国的GDP和进口贸易下滑,但并未恶化中国的出口贸易。就具体产业贸易而言,TTIP使得中国在美欧出口占相对优势的产业,其产品在出口上与欧美的差距进一步拉大;并使中国在相对美欧出口占优势产业的产品出口上受到了来自美欧的挑战。
재양화분석구미관세화비관세벽루수평이급측산미국、구맹화중국저삼대경제체쌍변화물무역비교우세적기출상,의거농산품관세、비농산품관세이급비관세벽루수평삭감정황설정불동정경,통과전구무역분석모형（GTAP）모의분석《과대서양무역여투자화반관계협정》（TTIP）무역자유화진정대미국、구맹화중국경제적영향。연구결과발현TTIP능촉진미국화구맹적GDP급진출구무역,병도치중국적GDP화진구무역하활,단병미악화중국적출구무역。취구체산업무역이언,TTIP사득중국재미구출구점상대우세적산업,기산품재출구상여구미적차거진일보랍대;병사중국재상대미구출구점우세산업적산품출구상수도료래자미구적도전。
Based on the quantitative analysis of the level of tariff and non-tariff barriers in the US and the EU,and the comparative advantage of bilateral trade in goods of export products of the US,the EU and China,this paper sets different conditions according to the agricultural products tariffs cut,non-agricultural products tariffs cut and non-tariff barriers cut,and make simulation analysis of the economic influence on the US,the EU and China through the global trade analysis model（ GTAP）. It is resulted that TTIP can promote the GDP and foreign trade of the US and the EU,but TTIP will lead to the decline of China＇s GDP and import trade,while not worsen China＇s export trade. As to specific industry trade,TTIP can widen the gap between China＇s export relative to the US and the EU in the US and EU＇s superior industries product categories,and make China＇s export challenge by the US and the EU in China＇s superior industries product categories.