首都经济贸易大学学报
首都經濟貿易大學學報
수도경제무역대학학보
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
2015年
1期
61~67
,共null页
人口老龄化 劳动参与率 直接标准化
人口老齡化 勞動參與率 直接標準化
인구노령화 노동삼여솔 직접표준화
population aging; labor participation rate; standardization
近年来,中国的劳动参与率呈现出不断下降趋势。这种下降趋势与中国人口老龄化程度的不断加深是否相关?人口年龄结构老化特别是劳动年龄结构老化对劳动参与率的影响到底有多大?采用定量分析方法的结果表明:人口年龄结构的老化特别是劳动年龄人口的老化对劳动参与率具有负向影响。政策启示:政府应积极开发老年人力资源以提高老年人口的劳动参与率;提高劳动生产率,优化产业结构,从而带动就业结构的优化,减少低端劳动密集型产业的发展,减轻未来对劳动力供给的压力,从而应对人口老龄化对劳动供给的冲击。
近年來,中國的勞動參與率呈現齣不斷下降趨勢。這種下降趨勢與中國人口老齡化程度的不斷加深是否相關?人口年齡結構老化特彆是勞動年齡結構老化對勞動參與率的影響到底有多大?採用定量分析方法的結果錶明:人口年齡結構的老化特彆是勞動年齡人口的老化對勞動參與率具有負嚮影響。政策啟示:政府應積極開髮老年人力資源以提高老年人口的勞動參與率;提高勞動生產率,優化產業結構,從而帶動就業結構的優化,減少低耑勞動密集型產業的髮展,減輕未來對勞動力供給的壓力,從而應對人口老齡化對勞動供給的遲擊。
근년래,중국적노동삼여솔정현출불단하강추세。저충하강추세여중국인구노령화정도적불단가심시부상관?인구년령결구노화특별시노동년령결구노화대노동삼여솔적영향도저유다대?채용정량분석방법적결과표명:인구년령결구적노화특별시노동년령인구적노화대노동삼여솔구유부향영향。정책계시:정부응적겁개발노년인력자원이제고노년인구적노동삼여솔;제고노동생산솔,우화산업결구,종이대동취업결구적우화,감소저단노동밀집형산업적발전,감경미래대노동력공급적압력,종이응대인구노령화대노동공급적충격。
China's labor force participation rate has also shown a declining trend in recent years. Falling labor force participation rate will reduce labor supply,while the decline in labor supply will be a challenge for China which is undergoing rapid economic development and industrial transformation stage. However,it is difficult to reverse the trend of population aging,and estimate how much the aging affect the labor participation rate become necessary. In order to figure out this question,this paper uses population standardization and econometric methods,the results show that that the aging of the population,especially the aging of the working-age population has a negative impact on the labor force participation rate. The results imply that the government should actively develop older human resources to increase the labor participation of older labor and adjust the population polices; on the other hand,in order to reduce the pressure on the labor supply in the future,it is very important to improve labor productivity,optimize the industrial structure and reduce the development of low-end labor-intensive industries.