CAJ | 학술논문

近年来特别是国际金融危机爆发以来,不少理论文献以及发展中国家的政策实践都表明,针对全球化的趋势和开放经济的特点,各国货币政策的目标和工具可能不是唯一的,与危机前发达国家普遍信奉的＂单目标、单工具＂理念形成鲜明对比。在此背景下,本文对中国＂多目标、多工具＂的货币政策框架以及规则体系进行了系统分析和实证检验。研究结果表明,在外部持续失衡的环境下,单一的反应函数难以全面反映中国货币政策的现实。相比较而言,现阶段分别基于内部和外部均衡的货币政策反应函数能较充分地刻画转型中国的特征。尽管在理论和现实中内外均衡之间存在着有机联系,但这在目前的货币政策反应函数中还不十分明显,可能与经济结构转型、汇率利率未完全市场化以及资本管制等现实有关。展望未来,中国货币政策的规则（体系）仍在演进之中,并不断趋近＂不可能三角＂的角点解。
근년래특별시국제금융위궤폭발이래,불소이론문헌이급발전중국가적정책실천도표명,침대전구화적추세화개방경제적특점,각국화폐정책적목표화공구가능불시유일적,여위궤전발체국가보편신봉적＂단목표、단공구＂이념형성선명대비。재차배경하,본문대중국＂다목표、다공구＂적화폐정책광가이급규칙체계진행료계통분석화실증검험。연구결과표명,재외부지속실형적배경하,단일적반응함수난이전면반영중국화폐정책적현실。상비교이언,현계단분별기우내부화외부균형적화폐정책반응함수능교충분지각화전형중국적특정。진관재이론화현실중내외균형지간존재착유궤련계,단저재목전적화폐정책반응함수중환불십분명현,가능여경제결구전형、회솔리솔미완전시장화이급자본관제등현실유관。전망미래,중국화폐정책적규칙（체계）잉재연진지중,병불단추근＂불가능삼각＂적각점해。
In recent years, especially after the outbreak of this round of international financial crisis, a lot of literatures showed that nowadays monetary policies might be signed for multiple goals and with multiple tools. Against this background, this paper analyses the multiple goals and tools framework of the monetary policy in China. The empirical study shows that the single reaction function is not enough to depict the reality of China＇s monetary policy in the situation featuring both internal and external imbalances. We construct the reaction functions separately from both internal and external perspectives, but the relationship between those two functions is not statistically significant. With the development of interest rates and exchange rates liberalization and the removal of capital control, we believe China＇s monetary policy will move forward to the corner solution of the ＂impossible triangle＂ in the future.