CAJ | 학술논문

关于加速推进我国资本账户开放的条件是否基本成熟,目前仍有争论。本文区分资本流出和资本流入项目,厘清决定开放的经济动因因素和制度因素,运用有序probit模型分析全球88个国家和地区资本账户开放的一般经验,再利用国际经验规律评价中国情况。我们发现,无论是资本流出项目还是资本流入项目,我国资本账户的实际开放程度远落后于国际经验规律下所应达到的水平。这也意味着,按照国际规律,当前我国资本账户进一步适度开放的条件已经成熟,最后简要讨论了我国资本账户子项目适度开放的具体建议。
관우가속추진아국자본장호개방적조건시부기본성숙,목전잉유쟁론。본문구분자본류출화자본류입항목,전청결정개방적경제동인인소화제도인소,운용유서probit모형분석전구88개국가화지구자본장호개방적일반경험,재이용국제경험규률평개중국정황。아문발현,무론시자본류출항목환시자본류입항목,아국자본장호적실제개방정도원락후우국제경험규률하소응체도적수평。저야의미착,안조국제규률,당전아국자본장호진일보괄도개방적조건이경성숙,최후간요토론료아국자본장호자항목괄도개방적구체건의。
It is still in hot debate for whether the conditions of accelerating China＇s capital account liberalization are basically ripe at present. Based on introducing the economic motivations as well as political factors that determines the openness of the capital account, this paper divides the capital account into capital outflows and inflows items and then adopts the ordered probit model to analyze the general empirical rules of their liberalization across 88 countries （areas） in the world. Then it applied the international empirical rule to China and the results conclude that the actual openness of the capital account in China is far behind the level implied by the international empirical rules for both capital outflows and inflows items. Meanwhile, it also suggests that China is now ready for a moderately higher openness of capital account according to the internal experiences. Finally, we briefly discuss the proposals for capital sub-account liberalization in China.