CAJ | 학술논문

本文根据中国二元经济中劳动力市场的特点，构建开放条件下两部门随机动态一般均衡模型，分析二元经济融合、技术进步、国际收支等宏观经济变量之间的关系。研究结果表明：（1）二元经济融合和农民工进城数量的增加对中国大部分宏观经济变量有正向影响，会引起贸易顺差，提高农民工工资，促进消费和国家总产出水平；（2）城市部门的技术进步不仅对本部门有益，还会引起贸易顺差和提高农民工工资，吸收更多的农民工进城；（3）农村部门的技术进步会提高农民收入水平，吸收农村更多劳动力，但是会引起贸易逆差；（4）二元经济融合对外国的消费和产出有正的溢出效应。
본문근거중국이원경제중노동력시장적특점，구건개방조건하량부문수궤동태일반균형모형，분석이원경제융합、기술진보、국제수지등굉관경제변량지간적관계。연구결과표명：（1）이원경제융합화농민공진성수량적증가대중국대부분굉관경제변량유정향영향，회인기무역순차，제고농민공공자，촉진소비화국가총산출수평；（2）성시부문적기술진보불부대본부문유익，환회인기무역순차화제고농민공공자，흡수경다적농민공진성；（3）농촌부문적기술진보회제고농민수입수평，흡수농촌경다노동력，단시회인기무역역차；（4）이원경제융합대외국적소비화산출유정적일출효응。
This paper analyzes the causes of China＇s international surplus in the current account under the dual economic framework. Combining the reading of the characteristics of the dual economy and applying DSGE model, this paper analyzes the influence of labor market barriers on migrant workers and the current account and other macro variables. The findings suggest that：（1） the decline in labor market barriers is beneficial to most variables and can accrue to the current account, promote consumption, and elevate immigrant workers＇ wage and total national output; （2） the technological process in the urban industries can materialize a surplus in the current account and benefit both urban and rural sectors; （3） the technological process in the rural industries can raise the farmers＇ wage level, absorb more rural labors, while it could lead to trade deficit; （4） the dual economic integration has positive spillover effect on the consumption and output of foreign countries.