CAJ | 학술논문

文章对日本发生钓鱼岛政治风波等危机事件后国内居民赴日旅游意愿进行实证分析和研究。首先基于国内外文献，归纳旅游危机影响和多维交互决策树模型研究进展。基于对国内756名居民的一手调研数据，通过SPSS21．0软件，采用描述性统计和多维交互决策树模型分析，对国内居民赴日旅游感知差异进行总结，对钓鱼岛事件后不同年龄、不同婚姻状况、不同出游次数、不同教育程度群体赴日旅游感知意愿进行卡方自动交互检测，以区分多维交互尺度下不同群体赴日旅游意愿，为企业应对危机管理提供参考。
문장대일본발생조어도정치풍파등위궤사건후국내거민부일여유의원진행실증분석화연구。수선기우국내외문헌，귀납여유위궤영향화다유교호결책수모형연구진전。기우대국내756명거민적일수조연수거，통과SPSS21．0연건，채용묘술성통계화다유교호결책수모형분석，대국내거민부일여유감지차이진행총결，대조어도사건후불동년령、불동혼인상황、불동출유차수、불동교육정도군체부일여유감지의원진행잡방자동교호검측，이구분다유교호척도하불동군체부일여유의원，위기업응대위궤관리제공삼고。
The paper is an exploratory study on the travel intentions of mainland Chinese residents to Japan after Diaoyu Island political crisis. Due to the superior location and excellent service, Japan has become one of the most popular outbound tourism destinations for Mainland Chinese tourists in the past 10 years. However, since the complicated and subtle relations between China and Japan, the tourism industry of Japan is evidently sensitive and vulnerable to various crisis. Under such circumstances, it is necessary to investigate the decision tree model research as well as compare domestic and overseas researches at the very beginning of the study. On the basis of literature review and in-depth interview with tourism operators via a three rounds of pre-test and revision, a self-completion questionnaire was developed and used to measure domestic residents＇ attitude and travel intentions after the Diaoyu Is- land political crisis. Data was collected through surveys in cities of different sizes from both developed and undeveloped areas in eastern and western China, such as Shanghai and cities in Fujian, Guizhou, Hubei, Jiangsu and Sichuan provinces. All respondents have abilities to travel to Japan economically and potentials to travel. Altogether 800 questionnaires were distributed and 756 were returned. Descrip- tive analysis was used to analyze the travel intention characteristics of domestic residents to Japan uti- lizing SPSS21.0. Four vital realities were found from the analysis. First, seeking entertainment opportunities can be the main motivation for Chinese residents travelling to Japan. Second, the family-based tour ought to be considered as the main trip mode. Third, the primary channels for tourism information dissemination include travel agencies and tourism e-commercial websites. Fourth, four to six-day staying in Japan could be proved as a suitable choice for domestic residents who prefer travelling during the national holidays and paid vacations. The CHAID decision tree model is reasonably used to analyze the differences of the intentions to travel among potential tourists in China. Based on the decision tree anal- ysis, most citizens would choose to ＂cancel the travel plan＂（29.0%）, followed by ＂replace tourist destination＂ and ＂postpone the travel＂, yet only 19.6% would ＂travel as scheduled＂ in the light of the post impacts of Diaoyu Island political crisis. There could be no doubt that the vast majority of citizens in China lay emphasis on the macro political environment when making a travel decision. Four dominant nodes were generated in tree simulation, namely respective age, number of times to Japan, monthly in- come and marital status. This study has made a detailed analysis on the causes, and provides each group with tailored marketing measures eventually. Thereby, mixed measures should be implemented, including short-term and long-term plans, to recover the tourism market effectively. From the perspective of crisis decision-making and crisis marketing, this study segments the mainland Chinese citizens in order to disclose the heterogeneity and clustering features of them. The results of the study may set up a systematic foundation for better positioning potential tourists by furnishing an exploratory method for crisis management and crisis marketing.