CAJ | 학술논문

文章以2006~2010年我国发生的旅游突发事件案例作为研究样本，以旅游伤亡人数作为研究对象，采用全局趋势分析法、空间自相关模型对旅游突发事件伤亡规模的空间特征进行研究。从人员因素、环境因素和设施因素等结构维度，对旅游突发事件伤亡规模的影响因素进行信息解构，并利用OLS模型和GWR模型对其影响因素的空间特征进行剖析，研究表明：我国旅游突发事件伤亡规模的空间分畀特征较为明显，主要表现为由东向西、自北向南皆呈倒U形分布，且东西向差异幅度略大于南北向。此外，Moran指数为0．1626，说明我国旅游突发事件伤亡规模的空间结构呈弱集聚分布态势。在影响因素的非平稳分析中，发现GWR模型估计结果要优于OLS模型。从全局区域看，人员因素、环境因素和设施因素对旅游突发事件伤亡规模的影响较为显著。从局部区域看，各因素的分布皆存在非平稳性，其中，人员因素的各系数段之间在空间上出现靠拢现象。环境因素系数值最高的区域为西南和西北地区。设施因素在空间上的分异特征较为明显，其中，最高系数值主要分布在中部和西南部分地区。
문장이2006~2010년아국발생적여유돌발사건안례작위연구양본，이여유상망인수작위연구대상，채용전국추세분석법、공간자상관모형대여유돌발사건상망규모적공간특정진행연구。종인원인소、배경인소화설시인소등결구유도，대여유돌발사건상망규모적영향인소진행신식해구，병이용OLS모형화GWR모형대기영향인소적공간특정진행부석，연구표명：아국여유돌발사건상망규모적공간분비특정교위명현，주요표현위유동향서、자북향남개정도U형분포，차동서향차이폭도략대우남북향。차외，Moran지수위0．1626，설명아국여유돌발사건상망규모적공간결구정약집취분포태세。재영향인소적비평은분석중，발현GWR모형고계결과요우우OLS모형。종전국구역간，인원인소、배경인소화설시인소대여유돌발사건상망규모적영향교위현저。종국부구역간，각인소적분포개존재비평은성，기중，인원인소적각계수단지간재공간상출현고롱현상。배경인소계수치최고적구역위서남화서북지구。설시인소재공간상적분이특정교위명현，기중，최고계수치주요분포재중부화서남부분지구。
As the tourism industry in China rapidly develops, emergencies in or affecting the industry happen more frequently, a situation which is attracting the attention of many scholars. This paper takes the tourism emergencies that occurred between 2006 and 2010 as case materials, and tourism casualties as the research object to further develop our understanding of such emergencies. The paper employs statistical methods in geographical studies to explore the spatial characteristics and influence of casualty scales on tourism emergencies. Using global trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation, we studied the spatial characteristics of the scale of casualties resulting from tourism emergencies. The study shows that the differences in spatial distribution of the casualties from tourism emergencies are significant. The data mainly present an inverted U-shaped distribution from east to west, and south to north, where the east-west difference is slightly larger than the north-south one. According to a Moran scattering plot, the Moran index is 0.1626, which indicates that the spatial distribution of the casualty scale of tourism emergencies is a weak-clustering type. In addition, most provinces are located in the homogeneous quadrant. Using the structural dimensions of human, environmental, and equipment and facility factors, this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics of influential factors based on the use of the Ordinary Least Square （OLS） and Geographically Weighted Regression （GWR） models. It was found that the GWR model is superior to the OLS model in the non-stationary analysis of these types of factors. In the whole region, the influence of human, environmental, and equipment and facility factors on the casualty scale of particular emergencies is statistically significant. Specifically, in the local region, the distribution of each factor is non-stationary. Inside such a region, each coefficient segment of the human factor appears to be closely aligned in space. The regions with the highest coefficient of environmental factors are the southwest and northwest; and the spatial differentials in equipment and facilities are also significant, showing that the highest coefficient value is mainly distributed in the central and southwestern parts. To conclude, the paper presents policy recommendations based on the above empirical analysis, suggesting that the tourism industry should establish overarching management of human, environment, and equipment and facility factors in potential emergency situations. It should construct a comprehensive safety and emergency management framework on the basis of the experience of different destinations, and it should emphasize the dynamics of safety prevention and control to enhance the emergency management capability of the industry.