经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2015年
1期
109~113
,共null页
能源上市企业 财务危机预警 Logistic回归模型
能源上市企業 財務危機預警 Logistic迴歸模型
능원상시기업 재무위궤예경 Logistic회귀모형
energy listed company; financial crisis early-warning; Logistic regression models
不同行业的财务指标与非财务指标有着不同的特征,而这些指标是构建财务危机预警模型的基础,因此有必要分行业进行财务危机预警研究。以我国能源行业上市企业为研究对象,对其预警指标进行分析,最终选取了10个能显著反映能源上市企业财务情况的指标,运用Logistic回归法构建预警模型,模型预测准确率达到了90%。
不同行業的財務指標與非財務指標有著不同的特徵,而這些指標是構建財務危機預警模型的基礎,因此有必要分行業進行財務危機預警研究。以我國能源行業上市企業為研究對象,對其預警指標進行分析,最終選取瞭10箇能顯著反映能源上市企業財務情況的指標,運用Logistic迴歸法構建預警模型,模型預測準確率達到瞭90%。
불동행업적재무지표여비재무지표유착불동적특정,이저사지표시구건재무위궤예경모형적기출,인차유필요분행업진행재무위궤예경연구。이아국능원행업상시기업위연구대상,대기예경지표진행분석,최종선취료10개능현저반영능원상시기업재무정황적지표,운용Logistic회귀법구건예경모형,모형예측준학솔체도료90%。
The characteristics of financial index and non- financial index of different industries are different and these indexes are the building blocks of financial crisis early warning model. Therefore,it is necessary to research the financial crisis early warning of a certain industry. This paper selected China＇s energy listed company as research samples,analyzed their early warning indicators and finally 10 extractive factors are determined and a Logistic regression model is constructed based on it. The accuracy of prediction could reach up to 90%.
