CAJ | 학술논문

货币政策传导系统是一类典型的复杂经济系统，存在着复杂的动力学演化过程。用混沌方法对货币政策变迁过程建立动力学模型，用蝴蝶效应对货币的乘数效应、金融危机等现象提出复杂性科学阐释，最后，利用中国货币政策传导基础数据对理论分析的结论进行验证的理论和实证研究表明，货币政策传导系统具有深刻复杂性机制和混沌特征。提高货币政策传导系统运行效率，防止系统剧烈波动的关键在于，必须以货币政策传导系统混沌特征为基础构建完善的货币政策传导机制，以增强货币政策传导系统的稳定性和抗干扰能力，从根本上消除由货币政策传导系统混沌特征所引发的系统异常波动的根源。
화폐정책전도계통시일류전형적복잡경제계통，존재착복잡적동역학연화과정。용혼돈방법대화폐정책변천과정건립동역학모형，용호접효응대화폐적승수효응、금융위궤등현상제출복잡성과학천석，최후，이용중국화폐정책전도기출수거대이론분석적결론진행험증적이론화실증연구표명，화폐정책전도계통구유심각복잡성궤제화혼돈특정。제고화폐정책전도계통운행효솔，방지계통극렬파동적관건재우，필수이화폐정책전도계통혼돈특정위기출구건완선적화폐정책전도궤제，이증강화폐정책전도계통적은정성화항간우능력，종근본상소제유화폐정책전도계통혼돈특정소인발적계통이상파동적근원。
Monetary policy transmission system is a typical complex economic system, and has a complicated dynamic evolutional process. The chaos theory can be introduced to conduct research on it, thus the dynamic model of the process of monetary policy change is established by applying the chaotic method. Complexity scientific explanation on monetary multiplier effect and financial crisis is presented by using the butterfly effect, and then the theoretical conclusion is verified by using Chings monetary policy transmission basic data, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The research proves that monetary policy transmission system has profound complexity mechanism and chaos characteristics in order to strengthen stability and keep resistant to interference of monetary policy transmission system, and eliminate abnormal fluctuations caused by chaos characteristics. The key to improve the operation efficiency of monetary policy transmission system and prevent it from volatile is that perfect monetary policy transmission mechanism must be constructed on the basis of the chaos rule of it.