CAJ | 학술논문

在分析我国区域发展差异和劳动力成本冲击的基础上,采用1998—2008年中国制造业规模以上企业数据,测算并分析在刘易斯转折点前后,制造业以及其中的劳动密集型产业发展的转变,并分别分析沿海地区和内陆地区制造业的形成机制,研究表明：我国劳动力市场正经历在从二元经济模式向新古典经济模式的转变,优先发展的沿海地区会更早地经历劳动供给的短缺而面临＂用工荒＂,吸引制造业向沿海地区集中的产业集聚效应已然式微;而中西部内陆地区的人口红利较东部沿海地区可能维系更长的时间,引导制造业向内陆地区转移的要素成本效应则逐渐增强;目前,上述作用和趋势对于劳动密集型产业尤其显著。
재분석아국구역발전차이화노동력성본충격적기출상,채용1998—2008년중국제조업규모이상기업수거,측산병분석재류역사전절점전후,제조업이급기중적노동밀집형산업발전적전변,병분별분석연해지구화내륙지구제조업적형성궤제,연구표명：아국노동력시장정경력재종이원경제모식향신고전경제모식적전변,우선발전적연해지구회경조지경력노동공급적단결이면림＂용공황＂,흡인제조업향연해지구집중적산업집취효응이연식미;이중서부내륙지구적인구홍리교동부연해지구가능유계경장적시간,인도제조업향내륙지구전이적요소성본효응칙축점증강;목전,상술작용화추세대우노동밀집형산업우기현저。
Based on the analysis of regional development disparity and labor cost shock in China,using the data of manufacturing industrial enterprises above designated size during 1998—2008,this paper calculates and analyzes the development of manufacturing industries and their labor-intensive industry before and after Lewis Touring-point,and respectively analyzes the forming mechanism of the manufacturing industries in coastal areas and inland areas.The research shows that Chinese labor market is experiencing the change from dual economic model to neo-classic economic model,that the coastal areas which have been developing in advance will face ＂labor shortage＂earlier,and the industrial agglomeration effect attracting manufacturing industries to put together along costal areas becomes less,however,the demographic dividend in inland areas of middle and west of China may keep relatively longer time,as a result,the factor cost effect leading to the transfer of manufacturing industries to inland areas will gradually increase,Currently,the effect of above actions and trends is especially significant on labor-intensive industries.