CAJ | 학술논문

采用熵权TOPSIS法对我国2001—2012年31省份的农业现代化发展水平进行综合评价，进而采用GIS技术对我国农业现代化发展水平进行空间格局分析，并运用Markov链方法对我国农业现代化水平的趋同演变进行了实证研究。研究发现：（1）整体上我国农业现代化水平从东部到中部再到西部梯度降低，且存在显著的空间自相关，发展水平相似的地区呈现集聚分布；（2）农业现代化水平还表现出一定的俱乐部趋同特征，随着时间积累，各俱乐部的趋同迹象有所缓解，但一直都存在着“高水平垄断”现象；（3）空间因素对地区农业现代化的发展具有积极影响，高水平的邻居更能带动本地区农业现代化水平的提高，研究还发现在考察期内这种带动作用需要3年的时间积累才能体现。
채용적권TOPSIS법대아국2001—2012년31성빈적농업현대화발전수평진행종합평개，진이채용GIS기술대아국농업현대화발전수평진행공간격국분석，병운용Markov련방법대아국농업현대화수평적추동연변진행료실증연구。연구발현：（1）정체상아국농업현대화수평종동부도중부재도서부제도강저，차존재현저적공간자상관，발전수평상사적지구정현집취분포；（2）농업현대화수평환표현출일정적구악부추동특정，수착시간적루，각구악부적추동적상유소완해，단일직도존재착“고수평롱단”현상；（3）공간인소대지구농업현대화적발전구유적겁영향，고수평적린거경능대동본지구농업현대화수평적제고，연구환발현재고찰기내저충대동작용수요3년적시간적루재능체현。
Firstly, we make a comprehensive evaluation on the level of agricultural modernization from 2001 to 2012 in 31 provinces of China using the entropy weight TOPSIS method .Then,we make a spatial pattern analysis on the development of agricultural modernization in China using GIS technology .Finally we make an empirical research on the convergence evolution using the Markov chain approach .The con-clusions are as follows：（1） Overall, levels of China’s agricultural modernization decrease progressively from the west to the east demonstrating a significant spatial auto-correlation and regions of similar devel-opment level show a concentration distribution;（ 2 ） There is a “club convergence” feature for the agri-cultural modernization in China , and the degree of convergence club weakens with accumulation of time , however, there always exists a phenomenon of “high level of monopoly”;（3） spatial factors have posi-tive effects on agricultural modernization , as regions of high modernization levels help upgrade the levels of neighbor areas .At the same time the study also find that it needs three years of time accumulation to reflect the effect of spatial factors .