财经理论与实践
財經理論與實踐
재경이론여실천
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
2015年
1期
59~63
,共null页
外包 实物期权 不确定性 外包时机
外包 實物期權 不確定性 外包時機
외포 실물기권 불학정성 외포시궤
Outsourcing;Real option;Uncertainty;Outsourcing timing
不确定条件下的生产外包具有期权特征。考虑价格与成本都具有不确定性,借助实物期权方法建立了生产外包决策模型,对外包时机进行了研究,得到了期权价值与外包阈值公式。通过数值模拟,分析了相关系数、波动率对阈值及波动率对期权价值的影响。
不確定條件下的生產外包具有期權特徵。攷慮價格與成本都具有不確定性,藉助實物期權方法建立瞭生產外包決策模型,對外包時機進行瞭研究,得到瞭期權價值與外包閾值公式。通過數值模擬,分析瞭相關繫數、波動率對閾值及波動率對期權價值的影響。
불학정조건하적생산외포구유기권특정。고필개격여성본도구유불학정성,차조실물기권방법건립료생산외포결책모형,대외포시궤진행료연구,득도료기권개치여외포역치공식。통과수치모의,분석료상관계수、파동솔대역치급파동솔대기권개치적영향。
Outsourcing of production under uncertainty has the option features.Correspond-ing to the uncertainty of price and cost,an outsourcing valuation model is established by using the real option approach to research on the outsourcing timing.The formulas of option value and outsourcing threshold are obtained.In addition,the effects of the volatility and correlation coeffi-cient on the outsourcing threshold and the volatility on the option value are analyzed through the numerical simulation.
