CAJ | 학술논문

目前房产税对房价影响的研究仍没有获得一致的结论。文章借鉴行为金融学LLS模型,并对该模型进行优化的基础上,以上海市为研究对象,分别模拟了完全市场调节和房产税政策调控下的房价走势,并从统计学角度对房价走势进行了数据分析和比较。LLS模型分析表明,目前房产税征收税率低,对房价的抑制作用较小,房产税税率的杠杆作用并不显著,但对房价的抑制作用将逐年增强,这为深化我国房产税改革提供了有益的借鉴与决策支持。
목전방산세대방개영향적연구잉몰유획득일치적결론。문장차감행위금융학LLS모형,병대해모형진행우화적기출상,이상해시위연구대상,분별모의료완전시장조절화방산세정책조공하적방개주세,병종통계학각도대방개주세진행료수거분석화비교。LLS모형분석표명,목전방산세정수세솔저,대방개적억제작용교소,방산세세솔적강간작용병불현저,단대방개적억제작용장축년증강,저위심화아국방산세개혁제공료유익적차감여결책지지。
At present, the stndy on the effect of property tax on housing prices has not come to a unanimous conclusion. This paper, by taking Shanghai municipality as the research object, quoting LLS modeling of behavior finance and optimizing the modeling, simulates tile housing price trends in both the complete market regulation and the property tax policy regulation re- spectively, anti makes the analysis and comparison on the data of the housing price trends from the perspective of statistics. The resuhs indicate that the current property tax rate is pretty low, has little depressing effect on housing prices, and its leverage effect is not significant. However, the depressing effect of property tax on housing prices will increase year hy year. This study provides a useful reference and decision support for deepening the reform of property tax in China.