华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
East China Economic Management
2015年
2期
81~88
,共null页
市场信心 经济波动 反馈效应 调控策略
市場信心 經濟波動 反饋效應 調控策略
시장신심 경제파동 반궤효응 조공책략
market confidence; economic fluctuation; feedback effect; regulation policy
市场信心变化是否会造成经济波动,如何选择财政调控策略稳定市场信心进而保持宏观经济稳定,文章利用矢量自回归模型和季度数据,在控制相关变量基础上对此进行的研究表明,市场信心变化对我国宏观经济的滞后影响非常显著,其中企业信心变化与消费者信心变化对宏观经济产生影响的时间路径存在明显差异,虽自1999年以来,积极财政政策对提振市场信心发挥了积极作用,但作用效果在不同政策工具之间差异明显。紧缩性财政收入政策虽对市场信心具有反向抑制效应,但并不显著,扩张性支出政策虽在经济低迷时期有助于提振市场信心,但成效在不同支出项目间差异悬殊,其中,科教文卫等社会性支出的增加对市场信心将会产生积极影响,而行政费的膨胀却会显著恶化市场信心。
市場信心變化是否會造成經濟波動,如何選擇財政調控策略穩定市場信心進而保持宏觀經濟穩定,文章利用矢量自迴歸模型和季度數據,在控製相關變量基礎上對此進行的研究錶明,市場信心變化對我國宏觀經濟的滯後影響非常顯著,其中企業信心變化與消費者信心變化對宏觀經濟產生影響的時間路徑存在明顯差異,雖自1999年以來,積極財政政策對提振市場信心髮揮瞭積極作用,但作用效果在不同政策工具之間差異明顯。緊縮性財政收入政策雖對市場信心具有反嚮抑製效應,但併不顯著,擴張性支齣政策雖在經濟低迷時期有助于提振市場信心,但成效在不同支齣項目間差異懸殊,其中,科教文衛等社會性支齣的增加對市場信心將會產生積極影響,而行政費的膨脹卻會顯著噁化市場信心。
시장신심변화시부회조성경제파동,여하선택재정조공책략은정시장신심진이보지굉관경제은정,문장이용시량자회귀모형화계도수거,재공제상관변량기출상대차진행적연구표명,시장신심변화대아국굉관경제적체후영향비상현저,기중기업신심변화여소비자신심변화대굉관경제산생영향적시간로경존재명현차이,수자1999년이래,적겁재정정책대제진시장신심발휘료적겁작용,단작용효과재불동정책공구지간차이명현。긴축성재정수입정책수대시장신심구유반향억제효응,단병불현저,확장성지출정책수재경제저미시기유조우제진시장신심,단성효재불동지출항목간차이현수,기중,과교문위등사회성지출적증가대시장신심장회산생적겁영향,이행정비적팽창각회현저악화시장신심。
This paper aims to find out whether market confidence changes will result in economic fluctuations, and how to choose fiscal regulation policies to stabilize market confidence so as to maintain macroeconomic stability. We employ the vec- tor autoregressive model(VAR) to analyze quarterly data based on the control of relevant variables. We find that: The lagged ef- fect of market confidence changes on China's macro-economy is significant, whereas the time paths of the effects of business confidence changes and consumer confidence changes on the macro-economy are obvious different. Although the proactive fis- cal policy has been playing a positive role in boosting market confidence since 1999, the effects are remarkable different among policy instruments. The tightening fiscal revenue policy has the reverse depressing effect on market confidence, but not significant. The expansionary expenditure policy facilitates to boost market confidence in the economic downturn, but the effects among different expenditure items vary greatly. Among them, the increase of science, education, culture, heahh and other social spending have a positive impact on market confidence, while the expansion of administrative costs signifi- cantly deteriorates market confidence.