CAJ | 학술논문

国际气候谈判中，美国等发达国家把中国承诺强制减排目标作为其加入全球减排协定的前提。那么如果我国加入全球碳交易市场，将会对我国产生怎样的影晌昵？本文基于Ralme，最优增长模型和博弈论思想，构建世界诱导技术变化混合（WITCH）模型，模拟评估全球碳交易市场对我国经济一能源一气候系统的影晌，结果表明：①2014年（GCM2014情景）和2020年（GCM2020情景）加入全球碳交易市场。到2100年我国GDP比常规情景（BAU情景）下分别减少6．42％和10．22％，说明加入全球碳市场将会对我国经济增长产生较大的负面影响，越早加入负面影响越小；②BAU、GCM2014和GCM2020三种情景下，2100年我国总投资分别达到98．48亿美元．85．59亿荑元和85．13亿美元，其中我国能源研发投资预计分别为32．9亿美元、82．5亿美元和96亿美元，说明对我国总投资的影响差异不是很大，但对能源技术研发投资却有快速而显著的促进作用；③BAU、GCM2014和GCM2020三种情豢下，2100年我国一次能源消费分为270EJ．247EJ和254EJ，说明全球碳交易市场可以减少我国一次能源的总消费，但总量减少不是太强著，却能显著减少我国的煤炭等化石能源的消费量，因为GCM2014和GCM2020情景下，2100年煤炭消费仅占到我国一次能源消费的10％左右，而BAU情景下煤炭仍占59％；④全球碳交易市场可以比较显著的降低我国能源强度和碳排放强度；、》全球碳交易市场的建立能有效降低全球气温，但不能将气温升幅控制在2℃范围以内。因此，我国要结合本国国情和实际，先建立国内碳交易市场，避免在国际压力下盲目承诺加入全球碳交易市场，至少2020年前我国不应该加入全球碳交易市场。
국제기후담판중，미국등발체국가파중국승낙강제감배목표작위기가입전구감배협정적전제。나요여과아국가입전구탄교역시장，장회대아국산생즘양적영상닐？본문기우Ralme，최우증장모형화박혁론사상，구건세계유도기술변화혼합（WITCH）모형，모의평고전구탄교역시장대아국경제일능원일기후계통적영상，결과표명：①2014년（GCM2014정경）화2020년（GCM2020정경）가입전구탄교역시장。도2100년아국GDP비상규정경（BAU정경）하분별감소6．42％화10．22％，설명가입전구탄시장장회대아국경제증장산생교대적부면영향，월조가입부면영향월소；②BAU、GCM2014화GCM2020삼충정경하，2100년아국총투자분별체도98．48억미원．85．59억이원화85．13억미원，기중아국능원연발투자예계분별위32．9억미원、82．5억미원화96억미원，설명대아국총투자적영향차이불시흔대，단대능원기술연발투자각유쾌속이현저적촉진작용；③BAU、GCM2014화GCM2020삼충정환하，2100년아국일차능원소비분위270EJ．247EJ화254EJ，설명전구탄교역시장가이감소아국일차능원적총소비，단총량감소불시태강저，각능현저감소아국적매탄등화석능원적소비량，인위GCM2014화GCM2020정경하，2100년매탄소비부점도아국일차능원소비적10％좌우，이BAU정경하매탄잉점59％；④전구탄교역시장가이비교현저적강저아국능원강도화탄배방강도；、》전구탄교역시장적건립능유효강저전구기온，단불능장기온승폭공제재2℃범위이내。인차，아국요결합본국국정화실제，선건입국내탄교역시장，피면재국제압력하맹목승낙가입전구탄교역시장，지소2020년전아국불응해가입전구탄교역시장。
In international climate negotiations, the United States and other developed countries urge China to make compulsory commitment. Will global carbon market have a great impact on China.9 Based on Ramsey optimal growth model and game theory, the paper builds a world induced technical change hybrid （WITCH） model and evaluates the impact of global carbon market on China＇ s economic-energy-climate system. Its result shows that ：（ 1 ） Comparing with business as usual （ BAU）, China＇ s GDP will decrease 6.42% and 10.22% in 2100 respectively if China joins global carbon market in 2014 （GCM2014 scenario） and 2020 （GCM2020 scenario） , which means that the global carbon market will have a larger negative impact on China＇ s economic growth. （2） China＇ s total investment will be 9. 848 billion USD, 8. 559 billion USD and 8. 513 billion USD in the scenario of BAU, GCM2014 and GCM2020. However, China＇ s investment in energy R＆D will be 3.29 billion USD, 8.25 billion USD and 9.6 billion USD in the three scenarios. The impact of global carbon market on China＇ s total investment is not very big, but it plays a significant role in promoting China＇s energy technology R＆D investment. （3） In the scenarios of BAU, GCM2014 and GCM2020, China＇ s primary energy consumption will be 270 EJ, 247 EJ and 254 EJ in 2100, which means the global carbon market could reduce China＇ s total primary energy consumption, but the amount is not too significant. However, it could significantly reduce coal consumption, because coal accounts for 10% of China＇ s primary energy consumption in GCM2014 and GCM2020 scenarios, coal still account for 59% in the BAU scenario in 2100 ; （4） The global carbon market can significantly reduce China＇ s fossil fuel consumption and energy intensity, carbon intensity. （5） The establishment of global carbon market can effectively reduce the global temperature, but fails to control the temperature rise within the range of 2 ℃. Therefore, China should establish a domestic carbon market at first and should not join the global carbon market before 2020.