CAJ | 학술논문

我国城镇化进程持续加快，1996年以来年均增长1．4个百分点，同时，居民生活直接能源消费快速增长。区域发展不平衡使各区域城镇化水平与居民生活直接用能存在差异。本文探讨2000—2011年间城镇化进程对各区域居民生活赢接用能的影响规律。根据Divisia指数分解法。将居民生活直接用能变化分解为人口增长效应、城镇亿率增加效应、城镇居民人均生活用能变化效应和农村居民人均生活用能变化效应。饕重分析了东、中、谣部区域城镇化率增加对区域生活直接用能总量变化、各类型能源品种变化的贡献及边际贡献。结果发现：2000—2011年间。城镇化进程对东、中、话部和东北区域居民生活直接甩能的贡献分别为4．2％誓0．6％，4．1％。-0．01％，人口结构的变动对中部居民直接用能的拉动作用明显；窖城镇化率每提高一个百分点，对各区域闻生活直接用能贡献差别不大。其中。对东部区域增量贡献最小；@与其他区域不同。中部区域城镇化进程对煤炭消费有增量贡献；东、中部区域城镇化进程对油品消费增量的贡献是西部区域的3—4．倍；东部区域城镇化进程对电力消费增量的贡献接近0；④城镇化率每增加一个酉分点，对东部地区油品消费增量贡献分别是中西部区域的1．9和2．3倍；对天然气和热力消费增量贡献的情况类似，均是西部区域最高，是东部和中部14—2．6倍。研究结论对城镇化进程下开展区域能源管理、节能减排具有指导意义。
아국성진화진정지속가쾌，1996년이래년균증장1．4개백분점，동시，거민생활직접능원소비쾌속증장。구역발전불평형사각구역성진화수평여거민생활직접용능존재차이。본문탐토2000—2011년간성진화진정대각구역거민생활영접용능적영향규률。근거Divisia지수분해법。장거민생활직접용능변화분해위인구증장효응、성진억솔증가효응、성진거민인균생활용능변화효응화농촌거민인균생활용능변화효응。도중분석료동、중、요부구역성진화솔증가대구역생활직접용능총량변화、각류형능원품충변화적공헌급변제공헌。결과발현：2000—2011년간。성진화진정대동、중、화부화동북구역거민생활직접솔능적공헌분별위4．2％서0．6％，4．1％。-0．01％，인구결구적변동대중부거민직접용능적랍동작용명현；교성진화솔매제고일개백분점，대각구역문생활직접용능공헌차별불대。기중。대동부구역증량공헌최소；@여기타구역불동。중부구역성진화진정대매탄소비유증량공헌；동、중부구역성진화진정대유품소비증량적공헌시서부구역적3—4．배；동부구역성진화진정대전력소비증량적공헌접근0；④성진화솔매증가일개유분점，대동부지구유품소비증량공헌분별시중서부구역적1．9화2．3배；대천연기화열력소비증량공헌적정황유사，균시서부구역최고，시동부화중부14—2．6배。연구결론대성진화진정하개전구역능원관리、절능감배구유지도의의。
China is experiencing acceleration of urbanization process that with an average annual growth of 1.4% since 1996. Meanwhile residential energy consumption in China is also in a rapid growth in this period. Moreover, given the fact of China＇ s unbalanced regional development, the evolutions of urbanization and residential energy use, and the relationships between them in different regions may differ from each other. This paper then studies the individual evolutions of urban effects on direct use of residential energy in Chinese four regions during 1996 - 2011. By using Divisia index decomposition method, we decompose the changes of residential energy consumption in four regions into four driving factors, i.e. population growth effect, urbanization effect, effect of urban residential energy consumption per capita and effect of rural residential energy consumption, hnpacts of urbanization rate increase on residential energy consumption in eastern, western, and central regions are focused, of which absolute and marginal contributions on total energy consumption and each type of energy consumption are analyzed. The results show that ：（ 1 ） urbanization rate increase contributes to residential energy consumption in eastern, central, western, northeastern regions by 4.2%, 20.6%, 4.1% , and -0.01% respectively. （2） Contribution from urbanization rate increases to residential energy consumption exists little difference among regions, of which that to eastern region is the least. （ 3 ） Unlike other regions, urbanization effect in central region on its coal consumption is positive; urbanization increases in eastern and central regions contribute to their oil consumption by 3 -4 times of that in western region; urbanization effect in eastern region on its electricity eonsumption is close to zero. （4） Every one percentage rise in urbanization rate in eastern region contributes to its residential oil consumption by 1.9 and 2.3 times of that in central and western regions respectively, and the situations to natural gas consumption and heat consumption are similar, both with highest contribution in western region. The conclusions provide some implications for regional energy management and energy conservation and emission reduction.