CAJ | 학술논문

摘要本文以国家发展和改革委员会公布的两批低碳试点城市（共36个）为研究对象。基于其2005—2011年间的单位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放数据总结其碳排放水平。从区域分布、经济水平和人口规模三个方面分析了全国范围内低碳试点城市的碳排放现状。通过“十一五”期间碳减排成效和“十二五”期间碳减排目标两个方面分析了低碳试点城市的碳排放现状，并推测了低碳试点城市2015年的碳排放水平。研究显示，“十一五”期间低碳试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放均高于全国平均水平。2011年低碳试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放均高于各城市所在省份的平均水平。低碳试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放平均水平从东部到西部逐渐升高。人均收入高于全国平均水平的低碳试点城市中92％的城市的人均CO2排放高于全国水平。而随着城市常住人口规模的扩大，试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放逐渐降低，人均CO2排放却随着城市常住人口规模的扩大呈U型分布。其中大型城市的人均CO2排放水平最低。同时通过与同类地区对比分析，研究表明试点城市的低碳工作成效和减碳目标普遍优于同类地区。除直辖市外。32个低碳试点城市中28个城市2010—2011年单位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度和2015年单位GDP的CO2排放节能目标高于所在省份。在城镇化速度继续增加和经济总最保持上升的趋势下，到2015年低碳试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放虽然下降，但人均CO2水平仍呈上升趋势。我国的低碳试点城市建设任重道远。
적요본문이국가발전화개혁위원회공포적량비저탄시점성시（공36개）위연구대상。기우기2005—2011년간적단위GDP적CO2배방화인균CO2배방수거총결기탄배방수평。종구역분포、경제수평화인구규모삼개방면분석료전국범위내저탄시점성시적탄배방현상。통과“십일오”기간탄감배성효화“십이오”기간탄감배목표량개방면분석료저탄시점성시적탄배방현상，병추측료저탄시점성시2015년적탄배방수평。연구현시，“십일오”기간저탄시점성시단위GDP적CO2배방화인균CO2배방균고우전국평균수평。2011년저탄시점성시단위GDP적CO2배방화인균CO2배방균고우각성시소재성빈적평균수평。저탄시점성시단위GDP적CO2배방평균수평종동부도서부축점승고。인균수입고우전국평균수평적저탄시점성시중92％적성시적인균CO2배방고우전국수평。이수착성시상주인구규모적확대，시점성시단위GDP적CO2배방축점강저，인균CO2배방각수착성시상주인구규모적확대정U형분포。기중대형성시적인균CO2배방수평최저。동시통과여동류지구대비분석，연구표명시점성시적저탄공작성효화감탄목표보편우우동류지구。제직할시외。32개저탄시점성시중28개성시2010—2011년단위GDP적CO2배방하강폭도화2015년단위GDP적CO2배방절능목표고우소재성빈。재성진화속도계속증가화경제총최보지상승적추세하，도2015년저탄시점성시단위GDP적CO2배방수연하강，단인균CO2수평잉정상승추세。아국적저탄시점성시건설임중도원。
In this study, we investigated CO2 emissions levels in 36 cities, which are national pilot cities for low-carbon development announced by the National Development and Reform Commission （NDRC）. Based on CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita data during 2005 -2011, we summarized the carbon emissions level of the low-carbon pilot cities and evaluated the carbon emissions from the perspective of regional distribution, economic development and urban population scale. Their decrease range of CO2 emission reduction daring the ＇ 11 th Five Year Plan＇ Period and future targets of CO2 emission reduction during the ＇ 12th Five Year Plan＇ Period was compared with provinces where the cities locate. Furthermore, the paper measured the CO2 emission levels of low-carbon pilot cities in 2015. Results reveal that CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita of low-carbon pilot cities were both higher than those of the national average level during the ＇ 11 th Five Year Plan＇ Period. Low-carbon pilot cities＇ CO~ emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita in 2011 were both higher than those of their comparable areas and the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually rises from east to west. 92% of the low-carbon pilot cities whose per capita income were higher than the national average, have a higher CO2 emissions per capita than the national average. With the increase of urban resident population scale, pilot cities＇ CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually reduced, nevertheless, their CO2 emissions per capita was ＇ U＇ -type distribution at the lowest point in large scale cities. Results show that pilot cities＇ low-carbon performances and future carbon reduction targets are better than their belonged provinces. Expect 4 Municipalities, there are 28 pilot cities whose decrease range of CO2 emission reduction and future targets of CO2 emission reduction in 2010 -2011 were higher than their provinces. This paper also measured the CO2 emission levels of low-carbon pilot cities in 2015 based on the population, urbanization and economy development goals in the ＂12th Five Year Plan＂ Period, with 2001 as the base year. The result shows that with the growth of urbanization and economy, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP of low-carbon pilot cities would decrease, but CO2 emissions per capita levels are still on the rise. It still has a challenge that those low-carbon cities would undergone a high CO2 emission process.