CAJ | 학술논문

借鉴SMC模型思想,使用威布尔分布函数有效地拟合出赊销产品的客户寿命时间变化特点,动态估测出企业商机存在的概率,并运用相关的收益估测方法及决策规则,建立了赊销动态决策模型,估测出不同调研阶段不同商机类型的客户总收益,使企业能够针对不同类型的客户在有限的时间内做出最优的赊销决策。企业商机估测模型有效克服了原SMC模型通过指数函数及伽玛函数拟合客户寿命时间特点时存在的计算复杂程度高、适应性差等缺陷。
차감SMC모형사상,사용위포이분포함수유효지의합출사소산품적객호수명시간변화특점,동태고측출기업상궤존재적개솔,병운용상관적수익고측방법급결책규칙,건립료사소동태결책모형,고측출불동조연계단불동상궤류형적객호총수익,사기업능구침대불동류형적객호재유한적시간내주출최우적사소결책。기업상궤고측모형유효극복료원SMC모형통과지수함수급가마함수의합객호수명시간특점시존재적계산복잡정도고、괄응성차등결함。
This study made a good use of the Weibull function to effectively describe the character- istics of the customer life time changes for products sold on account and made a dynamic estimation on the probability of the existing business opportunities. In addition, it constructed the dynamic decision- making model by means of relevant revenue-estimating methods and decision-making rules, which helps enterprises make optimal decisions for different types of customers subject to limited times. The opportunity-estimating model effectively overcomes the defects such as high complexity of calculation and poor adaptability, when SMC model fits the life-time characteristics of the customers by exponen- tial function and Gamma function.