CAJ | 학술논문

横断历史元分析（cross—temporal meta-analysis）是新近发展起来的一种定量文献研究方法，它把多项相互独立、但具有共同目标的研究按照时间顺序加以连贯，进而考察研究变量随年代变化的趋势。横断历史元分析可以把海量调查数据背后隐藏的规律简洁明了地展现出来，还能够弥补缺乏跟踪调查的纵向研究的缺憾。更重要的是，它能够使得研究结论的因果关系更具说服力，减少不同研究结论之间的争议。此外，与问卷调查、访谈等方法相比较，它的成本相对较低，有效节省物力、人力和财力。在人口学领域推广应用横断历史元分析方法，有助于把不同时间发表的若干针对同一问题且方法相同的研究，置于宏观视野下进行系统梳理，从而归纳出人口发展的一般规律。
횡단역사원분석（cross—temporal meta-analysis）시신근발전기래적일충정량문헌연구방법，타파다항상호독립、단구유공동목표적연구안조시간순서가이련관，진이고찰연구변량수년대변화적추세。횡단역사원분석가이파해량조사수거배후은장적규률간길명료지전현출래，환능구미보결핍근종조사적종향연구적결감。경중요적시，타능구사득연구결론적인과관계경구설복력，감소불동연구결론지간적쟁의。차외，여문권조사、방담등방법상비교，타적성본상대교저，유효절성물력、인력화재력。재인구학영역추엄응용횡단역사원분석방법，유조우파불동시간발표적약간침대동일문제차방법상동적연구，치우굉관시야하진행계통소리，종이귀납출인구발전적일반규률。
Cross-temporal meta-analysis is a newly developed but extensively applied method of quantitative literature review. This approach sorts a series of previous studies which are independent with each other but refer to the same issues in a chronological order, thus the hidden changing patterns of target variables could be observed. This method has now been widely used in psychology, educational research, behavioral science, medicine, economical management and many other areas. The use of cross-temporal meta-analysis in demographic research may contribute to revealing general trends of Chinese population changes by analyzing the results of previous studies on the same topics and with the same methods. In this paper we introduce the basic concept of cross-temporal meta-analysis, and illustrate the methods and procedures involved with a case of fertility research. Problems such as measurement instruments, odd values and their solutions are summarized, and practical applications of cross-temporal meta-analysis in demographic research are discussed.