CAJ | 학술논문

“大衰退”之后，“中国的明斯基时刻”是否会降临成为争论的热点。争论主要围绕中国现今是否已经处于投机性融资乃至庞氏融资阶段，以及中国政府是否有能力防止明斯基时刻爆发这两个方面。然而在这两个方面，要么由于双方缺乏确凿的证据，要么因为双方均存在合理性，因而无法对中国的明斯基时刻是否到来做出预判。但事实上，按照明斯基的逻辑，试图预测明斯基时刻何时到来不仅意义不大，而且不太可能；相反，重要的是理解和关注背后导致明斯基时刻降临的“明斯基动态”。中国应该从明斯基动态着眼，继续不断着力于减缓乃至改善近年来这种动态加剧的局面，并积极关注各种局部突发性风险，及时有效地遏制其风险扩大。
“대쇠퇴”지후，“중국적명사기시각”시부회강림성위쟁론적열점。쟁론주요위요중국현금시부이경처우투궤성융자내지방씨융자계단，이급중국정부시부유능력방지명사기시각폭발저량개방면。연이재저량개방면，요요유우쌍방결핍학착적증거，요요인위쌍방균존재합이성，인이무법대중국적명사기시각시부도래주출예판。단사실상，안조명사기적라집，시도예측명사기시각하시도래불부의의불대，이차불태가능；상반，중요적시리해화관주배후도치명사기시각강림적“명사기동태”。중국응해종명사기동태착안，계속불단착력우감완내지개선근년래저충동태가극적국면，병적겁관주각충국부돌발성풍험，급시유효지알제기풍험확대。
Following the Great Recession, whether ＂Chinese Minsky Moment＂ will come has become a hot controversial topic. The argument is mainly around whether China today is already in speculative financing or even the Ponzi financing stage, and whether the Chinese government has the ability to prevent the outbreak of Minsky moment. Unfortunately, owing to the lack of conclusive evidence and sufficient arguments, it is hard to judge if Minsky moment will come to China in terms of these two respects. But according to Minsky＇s vision, trying to predict when the Minsky moment will arrive is neither necessary nor likely. Instead, it is important to under- stand and concern the ＂Minsky dynamics＂ which leads to the outbreak of Minsky moments. From this perspective, China should constantly focus on the mitigation and improvement of the exacerbating dynamics in recent years, and actively concerns on all kinds of local emergency risks in order to timely and effectively contain the spread of them.