CAJ | 학술논문

新常态背景下中国要素禀赋结构发生了变化，这些变化不仅引起原有比较优势和增长红利的衰减，还制约了中国经济增长的潜力开发。新常态背景下自然资源、人口、技术以及资本等要素禀赋结构发生了变化，对此，需要对中国经济增长的潜力作出判断。新常态背景下中国经济由于增长速度的换挡，实际经济增长率会下降，但是潜在经济增长率依然有较大的空间，短期经济增长不可能继续保持高速增长，但从长期看经济增长依然具有可供开发的经济增长潜力。新常态背景下要遵循经济发展的规律，通过经济结构重构、增长动力重塑，来开发经济增长的潜力。制度、人力资本、技术和结构等方面制约新常态背景下中国经济增长潜力的开发。因此，新常态背景下宏观政策的基调是在供给管理和需求管理相结合的基础上，发挥供给政策和长期政策的作用，通过振兴实体经济开发经济增长的潜力。
신상태배경하중국요소품부결구발생료변화，저사변화불부인기원유비교우세화증장홍리적쇠감，환제약료중국경제증장적잠력개발。신상태배경하자연자원、인구、기술이급자본등요소품부결구발생료변화，대차，수요대중국경제증장적잠력작출판단。신상태배경하중국경제유우증장속도적환당，실제경제증장솔회하강，단시잠재경제증장솔의연유교대적공간，단기경제증장불가능계속보지고속증장，단종장기간경제증장의연구유가공개발적경제증장잠력。신상태배경하요준순경제발전적규률，통과경제결구중구、증장동력중소，래개발경제증장적잠력。제도、인력자본、기술화결구등방면제약신상태배경하중국경제증장잠력적개발。인차，신상태배경하굉관정책적기조시재공급관리화수구관리상결합적기출상，발휘공급정책화장기정책적작용，통과진흥실체경제개발경제증장적잠력。
In the new normal background, the factor endowment structure of our nation has changed, such change not only reduces the comparative advantage and growth dividend attenuation we previously have, but also limits our future potential.By analyzing the change in the factor endowment structure, including natural resources, population, technology,capital, and etc., this article will give us a preview of our future economical growth.Due to the adjustment to the new normal, the actually growth rate is descending, but it still has unrevealed capacity.We cannot keep a rapid growth in a short-term,but in the long term economic growth is still has great potential.In order to reveal the potentiality of e-growth, the law of economic development must be followed to keep the economy in an acceptableinterval. On the other hand, the reformation of economical structure and growth impetus needs to be applied as well. In this article, we＇ve analyzed the restrict factors in multiple aspects, such as the system , human capital, technology , and structure. Based on this analyze, we come up with a conclusionthat the combination of demand management and the supply management is the keynote of the macro policy in the new normal, in which the demand management supports the economic growth andemployment , the supply management underpins the realization of an innovation driven structure.