CAJ | 학술논문

近十年来我国粮食净进口量逐渐增加，粮食安全对贸易途径的倚重程度不断加大，但近年来国际粮食价格危机引发的多个国家贸易隔离程度加剧，对我国的粮食安全是一个重大挑战。文章在KymAnderson等（2013）模型的基础上剖析了国际粮食价格波动对贸易政策的影响机理，运用固定效应面板模型估计了国际粮食价格波动对中国及其主要粮食贸易伙伴国贸易政策的影响效应。结果表明，1992-2011年间，国际小麦、稻米和玉米价格波动程度增大1％，分别引起贸易隔离程度增大1．64％、1．60％及0．45％；与饲料粮相比口粮的国际价格波动引起更大的贸易隔离。因此．应从国内、区域和全球层面采取相应措施。
근십년래아국양식정진구량축점증가，양식안전대무역도경적의중정도불단가대，단근년래국제양식개격위궤인발적다개국가무역격리정도가극，대아국적양식안전시일개중대도전。문장재KymAnderson등（2013）모형적기출상부석료국제양식개격파동대무역정책적영향궤리，운용고정효응면판모형고계료국제양식개격파동대중국급기주요양식무역화반국무역정책적영향효응。결과표명，1992-2011년간，국제소맥、도미화옥미개격파동정도증대1％，분별인기무역격리정도증대1．64％、1．60％급0．45％；여사료량상비구량적국제개격파동인기경대적무역격리。인차．응종국내、구역화전구층면채취상응조시。
In the past decade, China＇s net food imports increase gradually, and China＇s food security has relied more on international trade. However, the recent international food crisis has triggered many countries＇ trade isolation, which means a big challenge for China＇s food safety. Based on Kym Anderson （2013） model, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of international grain price volatility on the trade policy, and estimates the influence effects by fixed effect panel model. The result shows that from 1992 to 2011, the price volatility of international wheat, rice and corn increases 1%, causing the level of trade isolation to increase 1.64%, 1.60% and 0.45% respectively. Compared with the feed, the international food price volatility leads to a greater level of trade isolation. Therefore, China should take corresponding measures.