中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2015年
2期
160~169
,共null页
生猪养殖户 认知特征 兽药使用行为 行为概率模型 仿真实验
生豬養殖戶 認知特徵 獸藥使用行為 行為概率模型 倣真實驗
생저양식호 인지특정 수약사용행위 행위개솔모형 방진실험
pig farmer; cognitive characteristics; veterinary drug use; behavior probability model; simulation experiment
抗生素类兽药在预防和治疗生猪感染性疾病.控制寄生虫和非感染性疾病.提高饲料转化率和促进生猪生长等方面发挥了重要作用。然而.已有的研究已证实.我国养殖户在生猪养殖中滥用、超量使用抗生素类兽药等负面行为.已形成严重的兽药残留、抗生素耐药性等问题.可能危及消费者的健康。本研究在分析江苏省阜宁县654户生猪养殖户案例的基础上.归纳影响养殖户兽药使用行为的认知特征.综合考量其期望收益.构建行为概率模型.并运用Matlab软件进行仿真实验.模拟养殖户间的交互作用.同时在政府政策不断变化的情形下.观测养殖户兽药使用的行为选择在系统中的动态变化过程。研究发现.随着养殖户对兽药使用规范认知的提高.兽药使用规范性程度不断提升.滥用或超量使用抗生素类兽药等负面行为发生的可能性逐渐变小.且当认知度足够高时.养殖户更倾向于规范用药;相对于兽药使用规范的认知.养殖户对兽药安全风险的认知对其滥用、超量使用抗生素等负面行为影响较小.且影响幅度呈递减趋势.总体而言.兽药安全风险的认知与养殖户兽药使用行为有一定相关性;养殖户对政府相关法律法规、违规处罚的认知的变化对其兽药使用行为选择的变化并不明显。与此同时.政府监管对遏制养殖户兽药使用的负面行为具有重要作用.提高抽查比例、增大违规处罚额度能有效控制并减少生猪养殖户抗生素类兽药使用的负面行为。针对我国生猪养殖户滥用、超量使用抗生素类兽药等负面行为相对普遍的现实情景.应加强兽药使用终端养殖户对兽药使用规范的认知.引导其建立用药档案;同时.加强养殖户对抗生素耐药性等兽药安全风险的了解.促使其自觉科学规范用药;作为食品安全监管的主体.政府应完善并宣传相关法律法规.增强养殖户法律意识.并加强监督管理执法力度.提高抽查比例.加大处罚力度.对兽药使用的负面行为的经济处罚落到实处。
抗生素類獸藥在預防和治療生豬感染性疾病.控製寄生蟲和非感染性疾病.提高飼料轉化率和促進生豬生長等方麵髮揮瞭重要作用。然而.已有的研究已證實.我國養殖戶在生豬養殖中濫用、超量使用抗生素類獸藥等負麵行為.已形成嚴重的獸藥殘留、抗生素耐藥性等問題.可能危及消費者的健康。本研究在分析江囌省阜寧縣654戶生豬養殖戶案例的基礎上.歸納影響養殖戶獸藥使用行為的認知特徵.綜閤攷量其期望收益.構建行為概率模型.併運用Matlab軟件進行倣真實驗.模擬養殖戶間的交互作用.同時在政府政策不斷變化的情形下.觀測養殖戶獸藥使用的行為選擇在繫統中的動態變化過程。研究髮現.隨著養殖戶對獸藥使用規範認知的提高.獸藥使用規範性程度不斷提升.濫用或超量使用抗生素類獸藥等負麵行為髮生的可能性逐漸變小.且噹認知度足夠高時.養殖戶更傾嚮于規範用藥;相對于獸藥使用規範的認知.養殖戶對獸藥安全風險的認知對其濫用、超量使用抗生素等負麵行為影響較小.且影響幅度呈遞減趨勢.總體而言.獸藥安全風險的認知與養殖戶獸藥使用行為有一定相關性;養殖戶對政府相關法律法規、違規處罰的認知的變化對其獸藥使用行為選擇的變化併不明顯。與此同時.政府鑑管對遏製養殖戶獸藥使用的負麵行為具有重要作用.提高抽查比例、增大違規處罰額度能有效控製併減少生豬養殖戶抗生素類獸藥使用的負麵行為。針對我國生豬養殖戶濫用、超量使用抗生素類獸藥等負麵行為相對普遍的現實情景.應加彊獸藥使用終耑養殖戶對獸藥使用規範的認知.引導其建立用藥檔案;同時.加彊養殖戶對抗生素耐藥性等獸藥安全風險的瞭解.促使其自覺科學規範用藥;作為食品安全鑑管的主體.政府應完善併宣傳相關法律法規.增彊養殖戶法律意識.併加彊鑑督管理執法力度.提高抽查比例.加大處罰力度.對獸藥使用的負麵行為的經濟處罰落到實處。
항생소류수약재예방화치료생저감염성질병.공제기생충화비감염성질병.제고사료전화솔화촉진생저생장등방면발휘료중요작용。연이.이유적연구이증실.아국양식호재생저양식중람용、초량사용항생소류수약등부면행위.이형성엄중적수약잔류、항생소내약성등문제.가능위급소비자적건강。본연구재분석강소성부저현654호생저양식호안례적기출상.귀납영향양식호수약사용행위적인지특정.종합고량기기망수익.구건행위개솔모형.병운용Matlab연건진행방진실험.모의양식호간적교호작용.동시재정부정책불단변화적정형하.관측양식호수약사용적행위선택재계통중적동태변화과정。연구발현.수착양식호대수약사용규범인지적제고.수약사용규범성정도불단제승.람용혹초량사용항생소류수약등부면행위발생적가능성축점변소.차당인지도족구고시.양식호경경향우규범용약;상대우수약사용규범적인지.양식호대수약안전풍험적인지대기람용、초량사용항생소등부면행위영향교소.차영향폭도정체감추세.총체이언.수약안전풍험적인지여양식호수약사용행위유일정상관성;양식호대정부상관법율법규、위규처벌적인지적변화대기수약사용행위선택적변화병불명현。여차동시.정부감관대알제양식호수약사용적부면행위구유중요작용.제고추사비례、증대위규처벌액도능유효공제병감소생저양식호항생소류수약사용적부면행위。침대아국생저양식호람용、초량사용항생소류수약등부면행위상대보편적현실정경.응가강수약사용종단양식호대수약사용규범적인지.인도기건립용약당안;동시.가강양식호대항생소내약성등수약안전풍험적료해.촉사기자각과학규범용약;작위식품안전감관적주체.정부응완선병선전상관법율법규.증강양식호법률의식.병가강감독관리집법력도.제고추사비례.가대처벌력도.대수약사용적부면행위적경제처벌락도실처。
Antibiotic veterinary drugs play an important role in prevention and treatment of pig infectious disease, control of parasite and non-infectious diseases, improvement of feed conversion ratio and promoting the growth of pigs. However, previous studies have confirmed that abuse, excessive use of antibiotics veterinary drugs and other negative behaviors have caused serious problems, such as veterinary drug residues and antibiotic resistance, which may endanger the health of consumers. In this study, pig farmers＇ cognitive characteristics which may influence their usage of veterinary drugs is analyzed, based on the case of 654 pig farmers in Funing County, Jiangsu Province, by considering the expected revenue, using behavior probability model. Simulating the interaction between farmers, observing the dynamic change of farmers＇ choice of using veterinary in the system under changing government policy, by using Matlab software. The result shows that with the improvement of farmers＇ perception of veterinary use specification, the normalization of veterinary use is improved and the occurrences of abuse or excessive use of antibiotics veterinary drugs and other negative behavior reduce gradually . The pig farmers become more inclined to standard medication when their perception is high enough. In contrast to the perception of veterinary use specification, farmers＇ perception of veterinary safety risk has less impacts on abuse, overuse of antibiotics and other negative behaviors, and the impact of the magnitude shows a decreasing trend. In general, there is a certain correlation between farmers＇ perception of veterinary safety risk and their veterinary drug usage. Changes of farmers＇ perception of veterinary medicine related government laws and regulations, penalties have no significant influence on their choices of using veterinary medicine. At the same time, government regulators play an important role in curbing farmers＇ negative behavior on using veterinary drugs. Higher proportion of checks and amount of non-compliance punishment can effectively control and reduce pig farmers＇ negative behavior of veterinary antibiotic use. Farmers＇ perception of veterinary use specification should be improved and medication profile should be established, based on the objective reality that pig farmers abuse or excessive use of antibiotics veterinary drugs and other negative behaviors. What＇ s more, it is necessary to strengthen farmers＇ awareness of antibiotic resistance and other veterinary safety risks and encourage farmers to standardize the use of veterinary drugs consciously and scientifically. As the main body of food safety regulation, the government should improve and publicize relevant laws and regulations, enhance the legal awareness of pig farmers, strengthen supervision, raise the proportion of checks, and increase the penalty amount. The economic punishment for illegal usage of veterinary drugs should be strictly observed.
