CAJ | 학술논문

利用Geweke分解检验对2006年6月13日-2013年6月18日期间基金投机行为与国际期铜价格之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明：国际期铜价格对基金投机持仓有长期单向的因果关系，二者之间存在短期双向即期因果关系；从反馈份额来看，更多地表现在二者的短期因果关系上。这说明基金投机并非国际铜价长期剧烈波动的原因，但基金投机短期内对期铜价格起到了推波助澜的作用。
이용Geweke분해검험대2006년6월13일-2013년6월18일기간기금투궤행위여국제기동개격지간적관계진행료실증연구。결과표명：국제기동개격대기금투궤지창유장기단향적인과관계，이자지간존재단기쌍향즉기인과관계；종반궤빈액래간，경다지표현재이자적단기인과관계상。저설명기금투궤병비국제동개장기극렬파동적원인，단기금투궤단기내대기동개격기도료추파조란적작용。
This paper uses Geweke decomposition test to study the relationship between fund speculation behavior and cop- per price on international future market from June 13, 2006 to June 18, 2013. The result shows that copper price on international future market has a one-way long-term causal relationship with fund speculation, but there is a two-way short-term causal relation- ship between the two. From the feedbaek, the causal relationship is mainly the short-term causal relation. This suggests that fund speculation is not the essential cause of the long-term volatility in copper price, but it makes the copper price fluctuate heavily in the short term.