改革与战略
改革與戰略
개혁여전략
Reformation & Strategy
2015年
1期
70~76
,共null页
能源结构 能源替代 发展路径
能源結構 能源替代 髮展路徑
능원결구 능원체대 발전로경
energy structure; energy substitution; path of development
能源结构调整是能源领域发展的重要内容。能源产品之间的替代性是能源结构调整的内在逻辑和外在约束。能源产品替代途径大体存在4种模式,而具体能源产品利用的经济净效果则是能源产品替代最关键的环节。能源产品利用经济净效果存在较为复杂的影响机制,其发展路径既不是唯一的,也是不确定的。由于能源产品可替代性的复杂性,能源结构调整就需要谨慎,充分考虑短长期的差异和联系,既要在短期充分发挥每个能源品种的利用潜力,又要避免长期的“路径依赖”陷阱,实现能源结构科学有序调整。
能源結構調整是能源領域髮展的重要內容。能源產品之間的替代性是能源結構調整的內在邏輯和外在約束。能源產品替代途徑大體存在4種模式,而具體能源產品利用的經濟淨效果則是能源產品替代最關鍵的環節。能源產品利用經濟淨效果存在較為複雜的影響機製,其髮展路徑既不是唯一的,也是不確定的。由于能源產品可替代性的複雜性,能源結構調整就需要謹慎,充分攷慮短長期的差異和聯繫,既要在短期充分髮揮每箇能源品種的利用潛力,又要避免長期的“路徑依賴”陷阱,實現能源結構科學有序調整。
능원결구조정시능원영역발전적중요내용。능원산품지간적체대성시능원결구조정적내재라집화외재약속。능원산품체대도경대체존재4충모식,이구체능원산품이용적경제정효과칙시능원산품체대최관건적배절。능원산품이용경제정효과존재교위복잡적영향궤제,기발전로경기불시유일적,야시불학정적。유우능원산품가체대성적복잡성,능원결구조정취수요근신,충분고필단장기적차이화련계,기요재단기충분발휘매개능원품충적이용잠력,우요피면장기적“로경의뢰”함정,실현능원결구과학유서조정。
The energy structure adjustment is an important content in the energy field. Substitution among energy products is the internal logic and external constraints of the energy structure adjustment. There are four substitution ways among energy products generally, and the net economic utilization of special energy product is the key factor for energy substitution. However, the net economic utilization enjoys much more complex mechanisms, along which the development path of special energy product is uncertainly not sole. Due to the complexity of the substitution among energy products, energy structure adjustment entails carefully taking full account of differences and connections between the short and long term. In the short term, the potential value of any varieties of energy utilization should be fully considered. On the other hand, the ＂path dependence＂ trap in energy structure adjustment should be avoided in the long-term.
