CAJ | 학술논문

本文以贸易开放影响环境污染的“三效应假说”为理论依据，运用修正的GML指数法将2000—2010年中国省级的碳排放分解为经济规模变动、环境全要素生产率变动和投入产出结构变动三个部分，然后在控制变量内生性、时间趋势等因素的基础上分别对贸易开放进行回归，以检验贸易开放对碳排放的规模效应、技术效应和结构效应。研究发现：贸易开放总体上增大了碳排放，主要源于正的技术效应，其次源于正的规模效应；贸易开放的结构效应为负，但不显著；由于环境规制力度的中外差异，贸易开放通过恶化技术效率与前沿技术水平两种路径引致环境全要素生产率下降，从而形成正的技术效应。
본문이무역개방영향배경오염적“삼효응가설”위이론의거，운용수정적GML지수법장2000—2010년중국성급적탄배방분해위경제규모변동、배경전요소생산솔변동화투입산출결구변동삼개부분，연후재공제변량내생성、시간추세등인소적기출상분별대무역개방진행회귀，이검험무역개방대탄배방적규모효응、기술효응화결구효응。연구발현：무역개방총체상증대료탄배방，주요원우정적기술효응，기차원우정적규모효응；무역개방적결구효응위부，단불현저；유우배경규제력도적중외차이，무역개방통과악화기술효솔여전연기술수평량충로경인치배경전요소생산솔하강，종이형성정적기술효응。
Based on the ＂three effects hypothesis＂, this paper studies the functional mechanism of the trade openness on China＇s provincial carbon emissions empirically. The main conclusions are as follows： the trade openness on the whole increases the carbon emissions, mainly due to its positive technique effect, followed by its positive scale effect; the composition effect of the trade openness is negative, but not significantly; due to the differences in the environmental regulations between China and foreign countries, China＇s trade openness reduces the environmental TFP through deteriorating the technical efficiency and the frontier technology, thus forming the positive technique effect.