CAJ | 학술논문

＂未富先老＂与退休年龄偏低并行是当前中国经济社会发展中的一个突出问题,延迟退休年龄成为养老保险制度改革的必然选择,然而,延迟退休与就业之间的关系是政策制定者须慎重考虑的重要问题。通过理论与实证角度研究延迟退休年龄对失业率的影响,验证了工作搜寻理论在中国的有效性：即失业率与劳动年龄人口存在显著的负相关关系。延迟退休年龄会使劳动年龄人口增加同时老年抚养比下降,最终导致失业率下降。由于未来中国人口发展的特点决定了失业率的上升趋势,进一步模拟分析发现延迟退休能够降低中国失业率水平,延迟退休年龄的时机选择会对失业率造成不同影响,审慎地选择延迟退休开始的时机对于稳定就业具有重要意义。
＂미부선로＂여퇴휴년령편저병행시당전중국경제사회발전중적일개돌출문제,연지퇴휴년령성위양로보험제도개혁적필연선택,연이,연지퇴휴여취업지간적관계시정책제정자수신중고필적중요문제。통과이론여실증각도연구연지퇴휴년령대실업솔적영향,험증료공작수심이론재중국적유효성：즉실업솔여노동년령인구존재현저적부상관관계。연지퇴휴년령회사노동년령인구증가동시노년무양비하강,최종도치실업솔하강。유우미래중국인구발전적특점결정료실업솔적상승추세,진일보모의분석발현연지퇴휴능구강저중국실업솔수평,연지퇴휴년령적시궤선택회대실업솔조성불동영향,심신지선택연지퇴휴개시적시궤대우은정취업구유중요의의。
The phenomenon of ＂becoming old before getting rich＂and early retirement is an embarrassing problem in current China＇s economic and social development.Therefore,the delaying of retirement age will be the inevitable choice for the reform of the pension system.However,the effect of delaying retirement on unemployment is one of the important problems that policymakers must take into consideration.In view of this,we study the relationship between delaying retirement age and unemployment rate theoretically and empirically in this paper,verifying validation of DMP model in our country.DMP model points out that unemployment rate being negatively related to the amount of working-age population.Delaying retirement age will make the amount of working-age population increase,the dependency ratio of population decrease,and then the unemployment rate will decrease.The characteristics of China＇s population development in the future will lead to the increase of unemployment rate.Further simulation analysis finds that future unemployment levels would be reduced by the delaying of retirement age.Choosing different times to start delaying retirement will have different effects on the unemployment rate.Consciously choosing the suitable time is of great significance for keeping stable employment rate.