CAJ | 학술논문

基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查资料及2010年＂六普＂特别汇总数据,对单独两孩政策下我国独生子女规模的测算方法、步骤、空间分布和年龄构成进行研究后发现：全国独生子女数量仍将持续增长,2050年将达到3.03亿人,但比原计划生育政策下将减少0.45亿人。独生子女的空间分布以城镇、东部地区较多,到2050年,城镇独生子女规模将达到2.70亿人,占独生子女的89.1%;独生子女省际分布差异大,到2050年,江苏、山东等12省区的独生子女存量在1 000万人以上,西藏、青海、海南则不到100万人。独生子女的年龄构成当前以40岁以下为主,到21世纪40年代中期转为40岁及以上中老年人为主,因此,应提前做好独生子女父母养老保障的应对工作。
기우2005년전국1%인구추양조사자료급2010년＂륙보＂특별회총수거,대단독량해정책하아국독생자녀규모적측산방법、보취、공간분포화년령구성진행연구후발현：전국독생자녀수량잉장지속증장,2050년장체도3.03억인,단비원계화생육정책하장감소0.45억인。독생자녀적공간분포이성진、동부지구교다,도2050년,성진독생자녀규모장체도2.70억인,점독생자녀적89.1%;독생자녀성제분포차이대,도2050년,강소、산동등12성구적독생자녀존량재1 000만인이상,서장、청해、해남칙불도100만인。독생자녀적년령구성당전이40세이하위주,도21세기40년대중기전위40세급이상중노년인위주,인차,응제전주호독생자녀부모양로보장적응대공작。
Family planning policy implemented over 30 years has generated a lot of only-children in China,and it has become a hot issue.The government loosened its single-child policy to allow a parent who has an only-child in their family to have another baby in 2014.Definitely this change will have an impact on the size and structure of the only-children.Thus,it is worth studying and forecasting under the new policy,especially in the context of″less younger children and more aging population,″so as to provide the basic information for the policy-maker to develop one-child parents pension policies in China.Based on 1% national population sample survey in 2005 and census data in 2010,we estimate the multi-age marriage probability among couples of double only-children,single only-children and non-only children,by following the idea and method of parity progression to measure out different number ofcouples who will be allowed to give only-children,or second children under the new fertility policy,and based on the number of second children and the parity-specific births to adjust dynamically the attributes of only children or non-only children,and to estimate the number of age-sex-specific only-children.The results show that by the end of 2013,the number of only-children had reached about 218 million,of which 69.0%lived in cities or towns,and 31.0%in rural areas.With the implementation of the new fertility policy in 2014,the number of only-children will continue to grow,and the long term trend of lower birth rate is immutable.The number of only-children will reach 303 million by 2050,but45 million less than under the one-child policy,which means less of only-child risky families and a more harmonious family structure conducive to future pension protection.The spatial distribution of only-children is heavier in our urban areas and eastern regions than other areas.There will be 303 million only-children in 2050,of which those in urban areas will account for89.1%and the rural only-children for 10.9%.The only-children are mainly concentrated in the eastern China,followed by the Middle and West regions,and fewest in northeast China.However,the proportion of only-children in the eastern region will increase before decreasing,rise slowly in the Middle and West regions,and show a steady decline in the Northeast region.The disparity in provincial distribution of only-children is quite large,with over 10 million each existing in 12 provinces such as Jiangsu,Shandong but less than one million each in Tibet,Qinghai,and Hainan.The age structure of the only-children is dominated by those under 40 years of age at present,among whom the proportion of children aged 0-14 will show a rapid decline before a stable situation,the young and prime adults aged 15-39 will show a slow increase before a quick decrease,while the old adults aged 40 and above will rise continuously.The only-children aged 40 years and above will gradually replace the young in 2040 as the main body of only-children.As they grow old,the risk of death will increase,and the proportion of one-child parents who lose their only-child will increase too.Since the pension of the parents of only-children and dead only-children will become serious challenges,we should be prepared to deal with their social security in advance.The fertility policy simulation technology is used here,together with marriage probability of multi-age difference between couples,parity progression ratio and dynamic adjustment of the characteristics of only-children.The provincial-level forecast of the number of only-children under new fertility policy is conducted for the first time to provide the size and age structure of the only-children on the national,regional and provincial levels,in urban and rural areas.It should be noted that the statistical standard of only-children as well as the data are forecast under the condition that the current fertility patterns are unchanged,and the death probability of only-children is the same as non-only children.